Summary of News:
On Wednesday (June 19), the US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range. It is still above the 105 level and ultimately fell by 0.11%, closing at 105.15. The US bond market was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday.
Gold prices moved within a narrow range on Wednesday (June 19), as much of the US market was closed for the Juneteenth holiday, leading to relatively light trading. Previous data indicated lackluster US economic activity, maintaining hopes for at least one interest rate cut this year. Additionally, concerns over potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East continue to provide safe-haven support for gold prices.
Due to the US holiday, market trading was light, and oil prices fell on Wednesday (June 19) after hitting a seven-week high. WTI crude oil retreated after reaching $81, ultimately falling by 0.17% to close at $80.54 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell by 0.19% to close at $84.63 per barrel.
Data and news released the previous day:
On the 19th local time, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah stated that the group is prepared for "the worst-case scenario." He warned that if the Israeli military launches a full-scale war against Lebanon, Hezbollah's combat actions will "have no rules or red lines." He emphasized that if such a war occurs, all of Israel will become a target for Hezbollah's armed forces. Nasrallah also stressed that Hezbollah will continue to support the people of Gaza and called for a complete and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
According to AXIOS, US officials who have watched a video of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he appears to be "mentally disturbed." Media reports also indicated that Netanyahu criticized the US for withholding certain weapons shipments to Israel in a video, prompting the White House to cancel high-level talks between US and Israeli security officials in Washington, D.C.
Russian President Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un have signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement.
Three major poll results on Wednesday indicate that the Conservative Party led by UK Prime Minister Sunak might face near-total defeat in the July 4 elections. One poll even predicts that Sunak could lose his parliamentary seat. Seat analysis by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph suggests that the Conservative Party might win only 53 seats in next month’s election, marking the worst performance in the party’s 190-year history.
The Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision and meeting minutes on June 20 at 19:00 Beijing time. Despite the UK’s overall inflation rate falling to the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in nearly three years in May, the Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at the 16-year high level of 5.25% due to sustained underlying inflation pressures.
Recently, Bank of England Governor Bailey has signaled positive signs for rate cuts and expressed optimism about the economic outlook, without ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in June. However, current economic data and the medium-term inflation outlook have cast doubts on rate cut decisions. The decline in service prices inflation is less than expected, and private sector wage growth is nearly twice the 2% inflation rate target.
A Reuters poll released last week showed that all 65 economists surveyed expect the Bank of England not to follow the European Central Bank in cutting rates this month, with the next policy statement on August 1 being the most likely time to start an easing cycle. Financial markets are similarly skeptical about an August rate cut, expecting the first rate cut to be more likely in September or possibly delayed until November.
Bloomberg analyst John Stepek warns that markets should not expect significant rate cuts from the Bank of England in the short term. Unless an economic crisis occurs, the Bank's rates are likely to remain in positive territory. The current real rates are not particularly high compared to past periods of positive rates. If inflation remains around the 2% target, the Bank of England's rates will likely be at least 4%, if not higher.
In early Asian trading on Thursday (June 20), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range, currently trading around $2329.40 per ounce. Gold prices moved narrowly on Wednesday as much of the US market was closed for the Juneteenth holiday, leading to relatively light trading. Previous data indicated lackluster US economic activity, maintaining hopes for at least one interest rate cut this year. Additionally, concerns over potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East continue to provide safe-haven support for gold prices. The short-term trend slightly favors a fluctuating upward move, with attention to support around the 55-day moving average at $2343.08.
Data released on Tuesday showed that US retail sales in May grew negligibly, and April data was significantly revised downward, suggesting continued lackluster economic activity in the second quarter.
CME's FedWatch tool shows the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has slightly increased from 61% a day earlier to 67%.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista stated that the main driver of gold prices remains market expectations for Fed monetary policy. While prices are gradually rising, they are somewhat restrained as the market awaits more substantive news.
Evangelista said, "The market expects the Fed to cut rates at least once. The dollar has fully priced in this expectation. Government (gold) purchasing also remains steady. Therefore, unless there are significant changes in this situation, gold prices are expected to continue to be supported above the $2300 level."
Last Friday, due to signs of cooling US inflation and significant political turmoil affecting the French stock market, European stock markets experienced widespread sell-offs, leading gold prices to rise by about 1.3%.
Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto DeCasa indicated that political uncertainties in Europe, especially with the approaching French and UK elections, could be a positive factor.
Goldman Sachs strategists suggest that the US election in November could trigger inflation, and gold serves as a hedge against this risk. According to strategists led by Daan Struyven, if the Republican Party wins both the presidency and Congress, it would pose the greatest risk to US inflation and bond returns. This outcome could mean higher import tariffs, slower immigration, stricter sanctions on Iranian oil, lower taxes, and stronger attempts by the White House and Congress to influence Fed policy.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, is also optimistic about the long-term trend of precious metals.
Hansen stated that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to impact the global economy, making gold a key asset for risk aversion and market hedging. At the same time, Hansen noted that the increasing sovereign debt forces central banks to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, reducing reliance on the US dollar.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis:
The US dollar index encountered resistance below 105.35 on Wednesday and found support above 105.15, indicating that a short-term uptrend may maintain a downward bias. If the dollar index encounters resistance below 105.35 today, the target for subsequent downward movement will be between 105.15 and 105.05. Today's short-term resistance for the dollar index is between 105.30 and 105.35, with important short-term resistance between 105.40 and 105.45. Short-term support for today is between 105.15 and 105.20, with important short-term support between 105.05 and 105.10.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD found support above 1.0725 on Wednesday and encountered resistance below 1.0755, indicating that a short-term downtrend may maintain an upward bias. If EUR/USD stabilizes above 1.0725 today, the target for subsequent upward movement will be between 1.0760 and 1.0770. Today's short-term resistance for EUR/USD is between 1.0755 and 1.0760, with important short-term resistance between 1.0765 and 1.0770. Short-term support for today is between 1.0725 and 1.0730, with important short-term support between 1.0710 and 1.0715.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Gold found support above 2323.00 on Wednesday and encountered resistance below 2335.00, indicating that a short-term uptrend may maintain a downward bias. If gold encounters resistance below 2335.00 today, the target for subsequent downward movement will be between 2323.00 and 2317.00. Today's short-term resistance for gold is between 2334.00 and 2335.00, with important short-term resistance between 2340.00 and 2341.00. Short-term support for today is between 2323.00 and 2324.00, with important short-term support between 2317.00 and 2318.00.
CWG Market Predictions:
For the US dollar today, the strategy is to short at highs, stopping losses if levels are broken, setting stop profits if there is a gain of more than 30 points, and withdrawing all pending orders before the US market opens. This strategy is suitable for margin accounts and can be used as a reference for spot trading.
US Dollar Index: You can sell at the upper limit of the 105.35-105.05 range, with stop-loss at a 15-point valid breakout, targeting the lower limit of the range.
EUR/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the 1.0770-1.0725 range, with stop-loss at a 25-point valid breakout, targeting the upper limit of the range.
GBP/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the 1.2760-1.2700 range, with stop-loss at a 30-point valid breakout, targeting the upper limit of the range.
USD/CHF: You can sell at the upper limit of the 0.8855-0.8825 range, with stop-loss at a 25-point valid breakout, targeting the lower limit of the range.
USD/JPY: You can sell at the upper limit of the 158.20-157.45 range, with stop-loss at a 30-point valid breakout, targeting the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the 0.6690-0.6655 range, with stop-loss at a 25-point valid breakout, targeting the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: You can buy at the lower limit of the 1.3740-1.3695 range, with stop-loss at a 30-point valid breakout, targeting the upper limit of the range.
Gold: You can sell at the upper limit of the 2335.00-2318.00 range, with stop-loss at a valid breakout of $7, targeting the lower limit of the range.
