Oil prices fell on Monday as traders assessed whether Saudi crude exports could gradually recover after missile and drone attacks disrupted the kingdom's East-West pipeline system. Supply has not contracted on a scale fully matching the region's geopolitical tensions, putting near-term pressure on prices. Shipping conditions and developments across the Middle East remain the main drivers of market pricing.
November Brent crude futures fell 1.66% to $102.15 a barrel, while October West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined 1.83% to $98.46. Intraday prices showed ICE Brent at one point trading at $101.76, down $2.11, or 2.03%, and WTI at $98.17, down $2.13, or 2.12%. Differences in quote timing and contract status underline the speed of current market moves.
Middle East crude flows remain above expectations
A September 18 report from JPMorgan analysts said Middle East crude flows had remained “surprisingly strong” despite disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Average regional crude flows over the previous 10 days were 17.1 million barrels per day, down 6.1 million barrels per day from the 2025 average.
The figures show that regional supply has been affected, but a substantial volume of crude is still reaching the market through alternative routes or shipping arrangements. For traders, actual loadings, port operations and the pace of export recovery are likely to be more important for the size of any short-term supply gap than the attack itself.
Saudi attacks put transport risks back in focus
On Saturday, Houthi forces backed by Iran attacked Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. Markets continued to assess whether the incident would cause further disruption to Saudi production, pipeline transport or port loadings. The East-West pipeline links the kingdom’s eastern oil-producing region with ports on its western coast, and its operating status directly affects how much crude can be exported while avoiding disrupted shipping routes.
At the same time, the war between the United States and Iran and related restrictions on maritime transport are adding to concerns about supply interruptions. A deterioration in shipping conditions or a delay in restoring exports could tighten physical markets again. If flows remain relatively stable, however, the geopolitical premium in oil prices could ease.
Export recovery is still central to pricing
Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and chief executive of Sky Links Capital Group, said the next move in oil prices would likely continue to depend on the pace of export recovery and diplomatic developments. If tensions flare again or maritime conditions deteriorate, he said, physical markets would tighten and prices could come under renewed upward pressure.
The market is now weighing two competing signals. Middle East crude flows remain below normal levels, Saudi Arabia’s key transport infrastructure has been disrupted and shipping risks have not disappeared. Yet average flows of 17.1 million barrels per day over the past 10 days indicate that supplies have not been fully cut off. Traders will be watching Saudi export recovery, regional maritime security and diplomatic developments to determine whether the supply shortfall continues to narrow or begins to widen again.