Gold:
The World Gold Council stated on Tuesday (July 30) that global gold demand, excluding over-the-counter transactions, fell by 6% year-on-year in the second quarter to 929 tons. The high gold prices caused a sharp 19% drop in demand for gold jewelry. Especially in the second quarter of this year, due to price sensitivity, the demand for gold jewelry was affected, and consumers may need some time to fully adapt to the rising gold prices, which might limit the upside potential of gold prices in the short term.
From a seasonal perspective, gold prices tend to be weak in the summer, particularly from the end of July to early August. However, once the sell-off ends, gold typically sees a notable rebound. The expectations are optimistic for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leaving room for gold prices to rise.
Technical analysis: On the daily chart, the market showed a slight rise in the previous trading day and closed with a small bullish candle, indicating that a short-term correction might stabilize. From the indicators' perspective, the market is challenging the 20-day moving average, and if it successfully breaks above, it might open up further upward potential. Pay attention to the resistance at $2424 and support at $2392 within the day.
Crude Oil:
This morning, the US API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 26 recorded a decrease of 4.495 million barrels, compared to the market expectation of a 2.333 million barrel decrease, and the previous value of a 3.857 million barrel decrease, which is bullish for oil prices and may provide short-term support. The EIA crude oil inventory data will be released this evening and could influence oil price fluctuations, so investors need to pay close attention.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that there is ample supply of gasoline and diesel in the Russian market and suggested that oil companies increase refinery loads during peak gasoline demand periods, which could further weigh on already weak oil prices.
However, as the oil prices continue to weaken, the market is betting that OPEC will delay its planned production increase measures, potentially limiting the decline in oil prices in the short term.
Technical analysis: On the daily chart, the market has been extending its downward trend for several consecutive trading days, indicating weak short-term market conditions. From the indicators' perspective, the market is running below the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, with bears in control. Pay attention to the resistance at $76.50 and support at $74 within the day.
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