Stacks co-founder Muneeb Ali says uncertainty over quantum computing could be limiting Bitcoin’s growth, as institutions may hold off on large purchases without a credible roadmap for upgrading the network’s security. The debate is not only about when quantum computers might threaten Bitcoin, but also whether the network can coordinate a timely upgrade and give holders enough time to move their funds.
Ali calls for a clear upgrade timeline
Speaking on the Chain Reaction podcast, Ali said quantum concerns are putting a ceiling on Bitcoin’s growth. Without a plan for a gradual transition to quantum-resistant security, he said, institutional investors may wait for a clearer technical path before committing more capital.
Stacks is a Bitcoin layer-2 network designed to bring smart contracts and decentralized applications to Bitcoin, which serves as its underlying settlement network. Ali co-founded the project. He noted that major Bitcoin security upgrades can take years to implement, and users would need additional time to transfer holdings to new addresses. Even if developers agree on an approach, putting it into practice would not be immediate.
Ali said Bitcoin could enter a higher-risk period if developers make no substantial progress on quantum-resistant security by 2028. He pointed to guidance from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and cited 2030 as a target for transitioning to quantum-resistant security. He also said advances in artificial intelligence could accelerate quantum-computer development, potentially bringing the relevant timeline forward to 2029.
Disagreement over timing keeps roadmap in focus
Some Bitcoin supporters argue that the quantum threat remains distant and that concerns are overblown. Ali said, however, that disagreement about how soon the threat could materialize may itself weigh on investor confidence, particularly in the absence of a credible upgrade roadmap.
In Ali’s view, a quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin would be more likely to emerge from a major research lab than from an unidentified attacker. He cited Google and Microsoft as examples, saying that organizations with such capabilities would also have to consider the legal consequences of using them to steal Bitcoin. That possibility, he said, is not a reason to defer security planning.
Ali added that a quantum-security problem for Bitcoin could affect the broader crypto industry, including projects developing their own defenses. As one of the sector’s core networks, changes to Bitcoin’s security could have repercussions for projects tied to its ecosystem or dependent on market confidence in the network.
StarkWare test cuts estimated costs, but no network upgrade yet
Developers are exploring different ways to make Bitcoin resistant to quantum attacks. In September, StarkWare said researchers had reduced the estimated computational cost of an experimental quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction by 79% during a week-long optimization challenge. The approach does not require changes to Bitcoin’s consensus rules, but the cost reduction has so far been demonstrated only in benchmarks.
StarkWare described the technology as a last-resort measure while maintaining that a protocol-level upgrade would be needed over the long term. Benchmark results are still a long way from deployment on the Bitcoin network. How to set an upgrade plan, allow time for implementation and coordinate user migrations remains central to the market’s assessment of quantum risk.