Regarding Gold:
In the past few months, most officials at the Federal Reserve have made it clear that they are not in a hurry to lower policy rates. Some economists believe that the latest "dot plot" to be announced by the Fed this month will show that the Fed will cut rates twice or fewer this year, compared to the three cuts predicted in March.
Nevertheless, in a survey conducted in early June, 74 out of 116 economists forecast that the federal funds rate will be first lowered to the 5%—5.25% range in September, consistent with last month's survey results. Additionally, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have already started their rate-cutting cycles, which may support gold prices.
Technical aspect: On the daily chart, the trend continues upwards with a bullish candlestick, indicating short-term strength in gold prices. Indicators show that breaking above the 20-day moving average offers an opportunity for further gains. Watch for resistance at $2395 and support at $2350 during the day.
Regarding Crude Oil:
On the supply side, OPEC+'s previous production cut policy has led the market to expect that oil-producing countries will start increasing production in October, which has put pressure on oil prices. However, this bearish influence is gradually being absorbed by the market, limiting further downside room for prices.
On the demand side, the OPEC Secretary-General stated that oil demand remains strong; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak noted that global oil demand is gradually increasing, with no peak demand expected in the foreseeable future. Additionally, the summer travel season is approaching, which is likely to maintain strong crude oil demand and provide short-term support for oil prices.
Technical aspect: On the daily chart, the previous trading session saw strong upward movement with a large bullish candle, indicating short-term strength in oil prices. On the 4-hour chart, prices are approaching the 62-day moving average. If prices effectively break above the moving average, it could open up further upside potential; otherwise, be cautious of a risk of price pullback. Watch for resistance at $76 and support at $74 during the day.
Important Disclaimer: The above content and viewpoints are provided by third-party partner ZhiSheng and are for reference only. They do not constitute any investment advice, and investors bear the risks for any actions taken based on them.
