Regarding Gold:
Overnight, gold bulls made a series of counterattacks, but they clearly lacked upward momentum. Short-term downward pressure remains significant, and the possibility of reaching a new intraday low cannot be ruled out. The medium-term trend may also be disrupted, and market sentiment remains quite tense.
With a series of disappointing U.S. economic data, the market has increased bets on a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fed officials' stance has also become more dovish. However, Goldman Sachs CEO offered a differing viewpoint, stating that the U.S. economy is stable and not in recession, and that the Fed will not take emergency rate-cutting actions.
After the global financial market's Black Monday, the market finally returned to rationality. Most of the previously plummeting markets experienced technical recoveries, such as the Nikkei 225 significantly regaining lost ground. Panic sentiment in the market began to decline, and the VIX fear index showed a V-shaped retreat.
Technical Analysis: Gold's daily chart shows a medium-sized bearish candle, with the focus still descending and substantial downward pressure. The resistance level at the hourly cycle is evident, and the pattern is deteriorating, with the potential to form a bearish continuation pattern. A new low is possible within the day. In the short term, attention can be paid to the resistance around the $2397 line.
Regarding Crude Oil:
Although oil prices rebounded overnight, key technical levels were not regained. The rebound may end soon. Fundamentally, the market might be underestimating U.S. crude oil production, which has been continuously rising. This could exert substantial pressure on oil prices.
U.S. crude oil exports (including natural gas condensate) increased to 4.23 million barrels per day in June, setting a three-month high, up from 4.13 million barrels per day previously. U.S. crude oil shipments in June rose 2.5% month-over-month and 11% year-over-year. The U.S. has become a major crude oil and natural gas supplier to Asia and Europe.
U.S. crude oil production has surged beyond expectations since the second half of last year, consistently staying at high levels, once reaching a historical high of 13.3 million barrels per day. Current production remains around 13.2 million barrels per day. It is expected that U.S. crude oil production will continue to stay high in the second half of the year, and the robust scenario of both production and sales is likely to persist.
Technical Analysis: The daily crude oil chart forms a spiral line overall indicating a downward structure, with a high probability of continuing to reach new lows in the short term. The 4-hour cycle has a noticeable resistance level above, the focus is still descending, and there is significant downward pressure within the day. In the short term, attention can be paid to the resistance around the $73.40 line.
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