On Wednesday (December 4th), the domestic futures market displayed a distinct divergence in trends. Some commodities showed strength, continuing their previous upward momentum, while others faced downward pressure. Investors can look for short-term trading opportunities based on market changes.
Palm Oil: Volatile Uptrend with Strong Fundamental Support
Palm oil futures rose by 1.54%, maintaining the rebound trend since last week. The international market's export data is positive, especially with increases in export growth from Malaysia and Indonesia, boosting bullish sentiment. Moreover, with the end-of-year stocking peak approaching, the increase in domestic consumption demand further supports the price rise. From a supply-demand perspective, although global production is seasonally increasing, logistical and policy factors are keeping short-term supply growth below expectations. It is expected that palm oil still has room to rise in the short term, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion progress and export data.
Soybean Oil: Following Rebound with Supply-Demand Standoff
Soybean oil prices rose by 0.66%, showing relatively stable performance. Despite the decline in U.S. soybean prices and the gradual increase in domestic oil inventories, improvements in market demand provided support for soybean oil prices. In particular, the rapid inventory reduction by coastal crushing enterprises boosted market confidence. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's new soybean planting progress. Current planting speeds and high yield expectations are exerting some pressure on the global oil market's rise. It is expected that soybean oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to changes in international soybean planting data and domestic import conditions.
Shanghai Silver: Improvement in Industrial Demand, Notable Gains
Shanghai silver prices increased by 1.38%, with a strong performance. The recent rise in macroeconomic hedge sentiment and expectations of domestic economic recovery have driven up prices for precious metals and certain industrial metals. Especially in the technological application field of silver, the consumption potential of silver is being re-evaluated, and market demand expectations are gradually strengthening. In the short term, the trend of Shanghai silver will be supported by macroeconomic data, and investors should pay attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and further reactions in the international market.
Glass: Weak Demand, Prices Under Pressure
Glass futures prices fell by 1.72%, making them one of the biggest losers of the day. As winter demand weakens and the real estate industry's performance remains sluggish, glass demand continues to be weak, leading to increased inventory pressure for businesses. Although there is a seasonal reduction in supply, weak demand remains the main constraint on price increases. In the short term, glass prices may remain weak, and investors need to pay attention to the recovery of demand in downstream industries.
PVC: Declining Trend with Weakening Cost Support
PVC futures prices fell by 1.68%, continuing their recent weak performance. Domestic demand remains sluggish, and the decline in raw material costs has left PVC prices struggling to rise. Additionally, a reduction in overseas market orders has also dragged down domestic export demand. Although inventory pressure is moderate, the lack of clear positive drivers means that the likelihood of a short-term rebound in PVC prices is small, and it is expected to maintain a fluctuating weak trend.
Soda Ash: Supply-Demand Imbalance, Prices Continue to Fall
Soda ash futures prices fell by 1.42%, continuing their recent decline. The release of new production capacity has brought supply pressures, while weak demand is limiting the recovery of soda ash prices. Particularly in the context of weak demand in downstream industries such as glass, soda ash prices continue to be under pressure. In the short term, soda ash prices will continue to face supply-demand imbalance pressure, and investors need to pay attention to supply adjustments and changes in downstream demand.
Corn: Weak Oscillation, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment
Corn prices fell by 1.55%. Currently, the selling progress in the main domestic production areas is slow, as farmers are reluctant to sell, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. However, cautious procurement attitudes by feed enterprises and weak growth in deep processing demand limit the rebound space for corn prices. At the same time, the rapid progress of corn planting in Brazil and increased high yield expectations exert pressure on the global corn market. Future trends may be affected by the international supply-demand balance and changes in domestic inventory.
Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation, Market Under Pressure
Soybean meal prices fell by 1.05%, extending the weak trend. Pressures on U.S. soybean prices, coupled with high yield expectations in both North and South America, have pressured soybean oil prices, and domestic soybean meal demand has been affected by customs clearance issues and inventory pressure, causing a lack of significant positive drivers in the market. Although there is uncertainty on the policy side, the seasonal warming of downstream demand may ease the decline in soybean meal prices to some extent, but overall, soybean meal prices will still be under pressure in the short term.
Rebar: Seasonal Decline, Overall Market Pressure
Rebar prices are influenced by the weakness of seasonal demand, showing a weaker price performance. The decline in demand from the construction industry, but the manufacturing industry's exports remain at high levels, which provides some support for rebar prices. The seasonal trend of supply reduction is also accelerating, easing supply-demand conflicts. It is expected that the trend of rebar will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term, although the decline space is limited, attention should still be paid to the recovery of seasonal demand.
Overall, the current futures market shows a clear differentiation between products, with bullish funds leaning towards industrial products and precious metals, while the chemicals and agricultural products sectors are generally under pressure. Market volatility may further increase, and investors should closely monitor international macroeconomic data, policy changes, and the supply-demand dynamics of various products to make informed short-term trading decisions.
