Last Friday (March 7), the international gold market experienced a volatile adjustment, with the daily K-line closing lower. By the end of the U.S. trading session, international gold was priced at $2908.22 per ounce, down $1.97, a decrease of 0.07%. It peaked at $2930.33 per ounce and hit a low of $2895.99 per ounce, maintaining an overall range-bound movement.
Data from gold ETFs shows that investor sentiment has cooled. As of March 7, global gold ETF holdings fell to 894.34 tons, a decrease of 4.30 tons from the previous trading day, reflecting a weakening short-term demand for buying gold.
Federal Reserve's Policy Stance and Market Sentiment
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his Friday speech that the Fed will remain patient and not hastily reduce interest rates. He noted that the U.S. government is implementing major changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation, the uncertainty of which remains high. The central bank needs to observe the actual impacts of these changes on the economy. Powell emphasized that the Fed has enough capacity to wait until the economic outlook becomes clearer before making decisions.
Powell's remarks came amid heightened financial market volatility. Recently, U.S. stocks and Treasury yields have both declined, while the Trump administration announced but subsequently delayed the implementation of high import tariffs on Mexico and Canada, further increasing market uncertainty. Although Powell believes the U.S. economy is still in "good shape," signs of slowing consumer spending and dented business confidence remain areas of concern.
Technical Analysis of Gold: Continued Volatility
From a technical perspective, gold is still experiencing high volatility on the weekly chart, with minimal retracement, and short-term moving averages are still diverging upwards, indicating some support. On the daily chart, gold prices fluctuate between $2890 and $2930, with short-term moving averages tending to converge, showing that the market lacks a clear direction for now and may continue to consolidate.
On the 4-hour chart, the fluctuations in gold prices lack continuity, and the trend is yet to be clear. On the hourly chart, there is no clear directional move in price action, and short-term trends may continue to maintain a fluctuating correction pattern. Investors should watch for market reactions following any breakout of the range.
Market Outlook: Monitoring Policy and Technical Breakthroughs
Key factors influencing the future of the gold market include the Fed's policy stance, the global economic outlook, and changes in market risk aversion sentiment. In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the range, and investors need to monitor the breakthrough of the $2890-$2930 range. If uncertainty over the economic outlook intensifies, gold may receive more support from safe-haven inflows.
Overall, the gold market is still in an adjustment phase. Investors need to closely watch the Fed's policy actions, global economic data, and the dollar trend to determine the further direction of gold prices.
