Market Turning Point Approaches: "American Exceptionalism" May Be Disproven
In its latest research report, Shenwan Hongyuan points out that in the first half of 2025, the biggest expectation gap in the global macro market may lie in the complete collapse of the "American exceptionalism." This perspective is based on three major catalysts: the global diffusion of the "Deepseek moment" in artificial intelligence, Trump reinitiating high-intensity tariff strategies, and constraints on U.S. fiscal policy.
Data shows that while the U.S. economy has not entered a recession, signs of a slowdown are emerging, with inflationary pressure and downside risks coexisting. In the second half of the year, investors need to closely monitor whether inflation heats up further and the real pressure on economic fundamentals under high tariffs.
Three Major Assets Under Pressure: "Stock-Bond-Currency Triple Hit" May Become Common
From the market performance perspective, Shenwan Hongyuan points out that the U.S. has entered a high frequency period of a "stock-bond-currency triple hit"—meaning U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all under simultaneous downward pressure. The core reasons include:
- High Inflation Not Yet Eased, exerting dual pressure on the stock and bond markets;
- Worsening "Twin Deficits", reducing the dollar's attractiveness and increasing capital outflow risks;
- Challenges to Tech Stock Valuation, with AI dividends no longer exclusive to the U.S., potentially causing a market style shift.
Notably, the current "stock-bond-currency triple hit" is not a one-time event but may recur frequently in a "pulsed" manner.
Economic Fundamentals Face Verification: Tariff Effects Still Taking Time to Manifest
Further analysis in the research report indicates that reciprocal tariff measures effective from April have started to show hints in import prices. However, due to prior "import rush" and inventory accumulation, inflation has not been fully driven up in the short term.
Key areas to focus on for the future include:
- Whether price hikes in imported goods will transmit to the consumer side;
- Whether capital expenditure by businesses will slow significantly;
- Whether total demand will contract due to high interest rates and policy uncertainty.
Furthermore, the "Beautiful Act" pushed by Trump, focusing on extending existing tax cuts, offers limited stimulus. However, the resulting fiscal deficit expansion and debt pressure will inevitably raise long-term interest rate risks.
Re-evaluation of U.S. Debt and Dollar Status
More attention is being drawn to whether the status of the dollar and U.S. debt as the "anchor of asset safety" might fundamentally waver. Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that if "American exceptionalism" turns into "American denial," the dollar's devaluation cycle may become irreversible, and the safety premium on U.S. debt could be challenging to maintain.
Once investors begin to reassess the "safe-haven value" of U.S. assets, the global flow of funds may accelerate its adjustment, with non-dollar asset allocations possibly gaining momentum.
