- After regular trading hours, U.S. stock index futures showed slight fluctuations. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures both edged down, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.3%. With major tech companies releasing earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaching, market risk aversion increased, and investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
- The semiconductor sector was notably under pressure due to concerns about intensified competition in the AI chip field and technological breakthroughs by competitors like Changxin Memory. Nvidia's stock fell about 5% in a single day, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 2.2%. Funds are moderately retreating from overvalued tech stocks and moving towards defensive assets.
- On the macro and geopolitical front, the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran led to a continuous decline in oil prices, partially alleviating inflationary pressures. The market's focus is now on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the latest guidance on future monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday.
Tech Giants' Earnings and AI Capital Expenditure Test
The market is currently focused on the upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT:US), Meta (META:US), Apple (AAPL:US), and Amazon (AMZN:US) this week. Previously, Tesla and Google's capital expenditures exceeded expectations, raising investor concerns about returns, putting short-term pressure on tech stock valuations. If this round of earnings fails to demonstrate the actual boost of AI investments on profits, the tech sector may face further valuation reassessment risks.
Intensified Chip Competition Drags Semiconductor Performance
Due to changes in the competitive landscape, leading companies like Nvidia (NVDA:US) experienced significant pullbacks, causing the semiconductor industry index to decline in tandem. The market's expectations for the supply-demand relationship in the upstream memory chip and computing hardware markets have subtly shifted, with some funds beginning to assess the possibility of peak gross margins in the industry chain. Overall, the semiconductor sector's preference has declined, and the market is showing rotational pullback characteristics in the short term.
Central Bank Decisions and Inflation Outlook Under Scrutiny
The Federal Reserve is about to begin a two-day policy meeting, with the market closely watching policymakers' statements on the interest rate path and balance sheet strategy. Recent easing of geopolitical conflicts and falling commodity prices have reduced short-term inflation expectations, but potential uncertainties in energy prices remain. Investors are reassessing the room for rate cuts and the liquidity environment for the year based on policy signals.
Geopolitical Easing and Individual Stock Litigation Risk Release
Progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has reduced geopolitical risk premiums, and lower oil prices have further boosted profit expectations for midstream and downstream industries. On the individual stock level, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:US) plans to resolve talc-related lawsuits through a substantial settlement agreement, which, although creating short-term financial pressure, helps eliminate long-term legal uncertainties and drives the valuation system back to fundamentals.
