Market Replay: Rebound After a Sharp Drop, Silver Shows Greater Flexibility
On February 3rd, during the Asian and European sessions, precious metals clearly rebounded after a significant pullback last week. Spot gold touched back near the $4,800 mark during the day. Spot silver's fluctuations were even more dramatic, with intraday gains nearing 7%, returning above a key round number.
Behind the Rebound: Overcorrected Sell-off + Margin and Policy Expectation Disruptions
According to a Reuters analysis of trading activities, last round's decline was related to a combination of "news shocks + increased margin requirements," followed by a typical technical rebound. Some analysts believe the previous drop was an overreaction, with prices returning to a more "tradable" range.
Institutional Insight: J.P. Morgan Raises 2026 Gold Price Target to $6,300
Despite short-term volatility, Wall Street institutions remain cautiously optimistic about medium-term supply and demand. Reuters reports that CME Group's increase in margin requirements has not altered the trend demand assessment. J.P. Morgan has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce, expecting ongoing support from official sector buying and investment allocation needs. They also mentioned that gold prices might need to reach a higher range before being considered "overheated" until demand cools significantly.
What's Next for the Market: Data Rhythm and Risk Sentiment
In the short term, precious metals may remain sensitive to the dollar's movements, interest rate expectations, and changes in positions. After sharp ups and downs, the market is increasingly focused on whether macro data and policy expectations will again trigger a cycle of "deleveraging—rebound—repricing."
