- The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement framework to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing international crude oil prices to a three-month low and significantly easing global market concerns about long-term high inflation.
- Spot gold prices rebounded sharply by 2.7% to $4,334.48 per ounce, reaching a new high in nearly a week, as market bulls are accumulating momentum to attempt an upward breakthrough of the critical $4,400 resistance level.
- As geopolitical premiums fade and oil prices fall, traders have significantly lowered their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. This week's policy meeting will be chaired for the first time by the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, marking an important turning point for macro pricing.
Cooling Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Asset Repricing
With U.S. and Iranian officials confirming a preliminary agreement framework to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global commodity market, long constrained by Middle Eastern tensions, is experiencing significant fluctuations. U.S. President Trump stated that after the agreement is officially signed in Switzerland on Friday, the U.S. will lift the maritime blockade on Iranian ports and ensure the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This marginal change directly weakens the supply chain risks previously triggered by geopolitical conflicts. Several European countries have also expressed readiness to gradually lift sanctions after Iran takes action on nuclear issues. As a result, the dollar index fell to a ten-day low, and the decline in oil prices directly eased the inflation transmission pressure on major global economies.
Weakened Tightening Expectations Support Gold's Rise
The decline in oil prices has directly altered the market's existing judgment on the monetary policy path. Previously, due to high energy prices, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for a long time, leading to a continuous increase in the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold, putting overall pressure on prices. Analysts point out that as potential inflation risks decrease, traders are intensively adjusting their pricing of the Fed's future interest rate path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year has quickly fallen from 69% last week to 53%. In the short term, the cooling of interest rate hike risks and the decrease in holding costs have become the core driving forces behind the sharp rebound in spot gold prices.
Warsh Era Begins with Market Closely Watching Forward Guidance
This week's global market focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. This is not only the first major decision after the decline in inflation expectations but also the first policy meeting chaired by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Although the market generally expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged this week, traders will look for decisive signals on the future interest rate cycle through policy statements and post-meeting remarks. If macroeconomic data shows a continued slowdown in U.S. core inflation, the Fed's rate hike window for the year may officially close; conversely, if subsequent inflation rebounds due to other variables, the current optimistic market pricing may face re-evaluation risks.
Technical Analysis Confirms Short-term Bottom
From a technical chart perspective, the short-term support level for spot gold around $4,000 per ounce has been confirmed by the market, and the recent rebound has shown strong bullish momentum. The current price is facing the resistance threshold of $4,400 per ounce, which is widely regarded as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Market analysts believe that if spot gold prices can successfully recover and stabilize above $4,400, it will significantly improve the overall market risk appetite and is expected to attract more technical buying, thereby pushing gold prices further towards the 50-day moving average level. Conversely, if profit-taking pressure is encountered here, gold prices may enter a consolidation phase within the current range in the short term.
