At a cabinet meeting on Thursday, US President Trump acknowledged that tariff policies might encounter "transitional issues," but he warned that if no agreements are reached with other countries, he would reimpose higher tariffs. He stated that while there may be some transitional costs and problems, in the long run, there will be good outcomes, and America will become stronger. Trump also claimed that through his protectionist policies, the US earns billions of dollars daily, making the country more powerful.
However, critics point out that tariffs are not paid by the country of origin of the goods but by importers instead, causing controversy over the actual effects of the policy. Trump made it clear that if agreements are not reached within 90 days, he will reinstate the original "reciprocal tariffs." He also mentioned that the 10% benchmark tariffs for certain countries might be reduced, depending on the negotiations' progress and specific situations.
Trump's hardline tariff policy has caused unease in global markets, especially after years of the largest buying spree, as US stock markets saw a significant drop on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index falling by more than 6%, before making a slight recovery. Despite Trump's threats to continue the pressure, he also stated that he might be open to extending the suspension period, depending on future developments.
Trump also revealed that the US has begun negotiations with around 75 countries and regions discussing tariffs and other trade policies. Although there has been some progress in discussions with Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, no agreements have been reached so far. Trump's senior economic advisors have reported slow progress in negotiations, with some countries' reactions being "incredible." Even if Trump pauses the reciprocal tariffs, the US still taxes a large number of imports, which economists warn could raise consumer prices and lead to a recession.
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi pointed out that even if Trump makes concessions on the issue of reciprocal tariffs, the possibility of a recession in the US still stands at 60%. He noted that despite Trump's changes, the global trade war continues and remains a significant risk to economic downturns.
Currently, global markets face the challenge of uncertainty, and Trump's tariff policies along with constantly changing negotiation strategies are putting considerable pressure on businesses and investors worldwide, likely affecting the global economic and trade environment in the coming months.
