This Monday, international oil prices opened high and then fell, with the market showing increased caution and insufficient momentum for rebound, causing prices to retreat from the upper range. Overall, the market is in a phase of volatile adjustment, showing resilience against declines and maintaining fluctuations within a range.
Market Cautiousness and Downward Adjustment
Oil prices opened high on Monday and then adjusted downwards due to several factors. The market was relatively calm over the weekend and on Monday, while the upcoming final Federal Reserve meeting of the year has made investors more cautious, with some funds opting to wait on the sidelines. In the short term, there is a lack of financial drive for further rebound in oil prices from the upper range, coupled with emerging technical resistance from overbought conditions, resulting in a gentle retracement from the highs.
On the geopolitical front, former U.S. President Trump made a series of statements on Monday about "stopping wars," easing some concerns about geopolitical risks. However, the current crude oil market remains complex, with no single driving factor strong enough to break the deadlock. In the short term, bullish factors slightly outweigh bearish ones, giving oil prices some resistance to decline.
High-Frequency Indicators and Market Performance
From high-frequency indicators, the monthly spread indicator slightly fell on Monday, consistent with the performance of oil prices, remaining relatively stable overall. In the European market, diesel crack spreads continue to rebound, while U.S. gasoline crack spreads are relatively mild. Domestically, after a sustained rise, refined oil crack spreads have started to adjust in recent days, but improved refining profits have stimulated the operating demand of independent refiners.
It is worth noting that the Chinese market's crude oil prices are relatively strong, with recent performance noticeably better than Brent crude, mainly driven by rising domestic demand and boosted processing profits.
Market Outlook: Cautious Short-Term Operations
Overall, oil prices are still fluctuating within a low range, lacking clear unilateral driving factors, with short-term trading strategies prevailing. Although market opportunities exist, investors need to operate cautiously, control risks wisely, and avoid buying at high prices. In the current complex market environment, maintaining trading discipline and systematic operations is particularly important.
Market analysts point out that despite the short-term pullback in oil prices, their resilience against declines remains evident, indicating that supportive bullish factors have not faded. Moving forward, investors should closely monitor the results of the Federal Reserve meeting and changes in global macroeconomic data, while also keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and their further impact on market sentiment.
