On Thursday (November 21), international oil prices initially surged but eventually fell slightly by the end of the day. This week, oil prices have rebounded from a low point by $3, once again finding support at the two-year range's bottom. However, due to the intertwined impacts of inventory buildup and geopolitical situations, the market lacks a clear unilateral drive, and oil prices continue to fluctuate at a low level.
In the evening, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in crude oil inventory, along with an unexpected significant rise in gasoline stocks. This data differed greatly from the previous API report, suppressing market sentiment. Oil prices briefly spiked before falling back, increasing volatility.
Inventory and Geopolitical Factors as Dual Focus
The EIA data indicated a buildup in crude oil inventory, while the significant increase in gasoline stocks surprised the market. Additionally, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation has clearly intensified recently, becoming a market focal point. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, partially alleviating the pressure from inventory buildup.
Meanwhile, the forthcoming cold wave in Europe and North America has further driven up natural gas prices, providing indirect support for oil prices. Moreover, a rebound in the refining margins for petroleum products in Europe and America has also bolstered oil prices. These factors propelled oil prices to reach a new weekly high after the European session on Wednesday.
Complex Short-Term Market Sentiment and Cautious Fund Chase
Despite multiple supports for the oil market, uncertainty in supply persists. Norwegian oil fields quickly resumed production after a one-day halt, slightly easing supply pressure. At the same time, domestic oil sectors maintained upward momentum amid the continued weakening of the renminbi and a general commodity rebound atmosphere. However, as the rebound enters the third day, market funds have become more cautious in further chasing gains.
Market Outlook: Mainly Fluctuations, Pay Attention to Long-Short Dynamics
Market analysis suggests that this week's significant oil price rebound has temporarily eased previous bearish sentiments. However, in the absence of a single driving force, oil prices are likely to maintain a low-level fluctuating trend. Inventory changes, geopolitical issues, weather factors, among other complex variables, are interwoven, affecting market sentiment. Investors should participate cautiously, closely monitoring market rhythms and seizing short-term trading opportunities.
