In Monday's trading on the Asian markets, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continued to rise, touching $80.90 per barrel at one point. This price increase was primarily driven by market concerns over escalating geopolitical risks and potential disruptions to oil supply.
Recently, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries has heightened market worries about potential disruptions to the global oil supply. Reports indicate that an attack launched by Ukraine on Saturday against the Slavyansk refinery in Krasnodar caused a brief fire. According to Reuters analysis, this attack affected about 7% of Russia's refining capacity in the first quarter.
On the other hand, Ukraine announced last Sunday that it does not plan to extend the five-year agreement with Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, regarding the transit of natural gas to Europe, nor does it consider negotiating a new agreement. This agreement was reached between Russia and Ukraine in 2019 and is expected to expire at the end of 2024.
In the international political arena, recent actions by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have significantly impacted the regional situation. He expressed an intention to expand into Rafah in Gaza, complicating the prospects for a peace agreement. In response, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that this would severely hinder efforts towards regional peace.
Against this backdrop, markets are also closely monitoring the interest rate decisions of major central banks this week, especially whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its current high policy rates. According to the Federal Reserve Watch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market expects a 56.3% chance of a rate cut in June and a 75.2% chance in July. An increase in borrowing costs could suppress oil demand, thereby exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
In summary, geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in energy supply, and changes in global economic policy are collectively influencing the dynamics of the oil market. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring these factors while assessing their potential impact on the balance of oil supply and demand and price trends.
