Bitcoin that has not moved on-chain for at least one year accounted for 63.3% of supply on September 18, up from 62.32% on August 18. The increase points to an older overall supply structure, but it does not by itself confirm a new wave of buying or show that holders are actively removing coins from circulation.
One-Year Supply Share Rises to 63.3%
Maketo’s HODL Waves classify Bitcoin supply by the last time each unspent transaction output (UTXO) moved on-chain. Coins that remain untouched gradually move into older age bands, while a transfer generally resets their age to a younger band.
The rise in one-year-held supply on September 18 therefore first reflects a shift in the age distribution of on-chain coins. It does not mean that new buyers acquired 63.3% of supply over the past month, nor does it establish that every holder is deliberately reducing their willingness to sell.
The clearest changes appeared in adjacent age bands. Between August 18 and September 18, the share of supply held for one to two years rose from 13.52% to 14.57%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points and the largest gain among the age bands covering more than one year. Over the same period, the six- to 12-month band fell from 19.10% to 17.53%. A September 18 Glassnode snapshot showed the same latest values for both ranges.
The offsetting moves are consistent with some coins crossing the one-year age threshold. In other words, coins that had been in the six- to 12-month band may have naturally entered the one- to two-year band simply by remaining inactive. Age-band data reflects net changes, including coins entering and leaving each range as well as resets caused by on-chain transfers. It cannot directly identify the movement of specific coins or changes in beneficial ownership.
Short-Term Moving Supply Also Declines
The share of Bitcoin supply that had moved within the previous month also decreased, falling from 7.30% on August 18 to 7.03% on September 18. That suggests a moderation in short-term on-chain activity, but fewer transfers do not necessarily mean that the supply available for sale has tightened.
Under Glassnode’s HODL Waves methodology, unmoved UTXOs move into older age bands as they pass different time thresholds. Any transfer can move the relevant output back into a younger band. The method tracks the age structure of supply, but cannot by itself determine the identity of holders, their transaction motives, or whether a genuine change in ownership occurred.
For example, transfers between wallets controlled by the same investor, or internal wallet movements by a custodian, can make on-chain outputs appear younger without changing beneficial ownership. Bitcoin that has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible may remain in the oldest age bands for extended periods, but that does not show that the holder is actively pursuing a long-term holding strategy.
Coinbase Example Highlights Attribution Limits
In November 2025, Coinbase said that internal wallet migrations can generate substantial on-chain transaction volume without directly reflecting market buying or selling. That example is not presented as the cause of the current age-distribution change, but it illustrates why transfer data alone cannot reliably show whether funds are entering the market, leaving an exchange, or merely being moved for internal operational reasons.
For the September 18 data, the conclusions that can be drawn are narrower: the age distribution of Bitcoin’s on-chain supply became older, while the share of supply moved during the previous month declined. The data does not directly measure the amount of supply available for sale, nor does it show that liquid supply has materially contracted.
Exchange Flows and Entity Data Remain Relevant
Assessing whether the change represents a new accumulation phase would require additional measures, including entity-adjusted wallet balances, exchange net inflows and outflows, spending by long-term holders, and transfers between different types of entities. Age data becomes more informative about underlying holding behavior and market supply-demand conditions only when these indicators point in the same direction.
At the time of the relevant data release, Bitcoin was priced at $80,447.74, down 0.58% over 24 hours. Its market capitalization was approximately $1.62 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume was about $22.56 billion, down 41.17% from the prior period. Circulating supply stood at roughly 20.09 million coins, and fully diluted valuation was approximately $1.69 trillion. The rise in one-year HODL Waves is therefore better interpreted as a sign of an aging supply structure than as confirmation of new demand.