Daily Review: May 16

Vic He
Vic He

In the post-data market, attention should primarily be on the direction of the U.S. dollar, which determines the direction for all non-U.S. currencies. Keep an eye on the impact of speeches by Federal Reserve officials on the market.

Market Review

On Wednesday, the U.S. April unadjusted CPI year-over-year came in at 3.4%, lower than the previous value of 3.5%. The April core CPI month-over-month fell to 0.3%, marking a new low since December last year. The interest rate futures market is pricing in a 52 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up about 10 basis points from Tuesday's bet. This renewed market confidence that the Fed will cut rates in September, as the U.S. April CPI data indicates a downward trend in inflation and last month's retail sales unexpectedly remained flat. The dollar index plunged significantly during the session and finally closed at 104.3.


Today’s Focus

Dollar Index: The price has reached the 104 level, and the short-term focus is on the left-side low point and the support at the round number level. Within the day, attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities in this area, with resistance above at yesterday's break structure of 104.8. If the market rebounds without breaking through, it could be shorted for further decline.


Euro/USD: The uptrend continues, with support below at the 1.085 level, which broke structure yesterday. If the short-term market stabilizes upon retracement, more long positions can be continued. Resistance above is at the 1.094 high; if no top signal appears, then consider short position trading opportunities.


GBP/USD: The price is at the short-term resistance level of 1.27. Exercise caution when chasing the highs before breaking through. If the resistance is breached during the day, consider short-term long positions on the pullback; if there is no effective breakthrough, wait for a bearish K reversal before taking aggressive short positions. Support below is at 1.26 and resistance above at 1.28.


USD/JPY: The price is approaching the 157 resistance level but is falling, with short-term support near the previous 153 region. If a K reversal appears within the 152-153 region during the day, more longs can be entered again. Otherwise, wait and see.


AUD/USD: The market has broken through the 0.666 resistance area. Watch for breakout pullback opportunities in the short term; if the market stabilizes upon falling back into the 0.664-0.666 area, more long positions can be made. If 0.658 is not broken below, the bullish trend continues; if it breaks directly, a subsequent consolidation may follow.


USD/CAD: The market has broken below the 1.363 pivot area, continuing the bearish trend. Within the day, monitor the breakout pullback opportunities; if the market stabilizes upon bouncing back into the 1.363-1.365 area, further shorts can be taken. The downward trend continues as long as the high of 1.369 is not broken.


Crude Oil: The short-term oil price support remains within the 76.5-77.5 area. If the market does not break through effectively, treat it as a consolidation. Strong resistance is above the 80.5-81 area. Conservative traders should wait for the trend to continue after the consolidation before entering.


Gold: The market is approaching the 2400 level; within the day, watch the reaction in this resistance area. If there's no effective breakthrough above 2400, the market will retreat again, with short-term support at yesterday's breakthrough structure at the 2375 area. Above this structure, the bullish trend continues within the day; if it breaks below, the trend will turn bearish.


S&P Index: The price has broken into new highs, continuing the bullish trend. In the short term, watch for the support at the 5280 breakthrough structure; if a K reversal appears upon testing the retracement, more long positions can be taken. Strong support is at 5200 below; if this price holds, consider more long positions upon retracement.


Bitcoin: The price has reached the upper bound of the consolidation at the 66000 area. In the short term, monitor the K reversal in this region. Direct upward movement will see another retreat within the major consolidation range of 59000-73000, and the market will strengthen. If there’s no effective breakthrough, continue high-frequency trading within the small consolidation range. Watch the K reversal within the 66000-67200 range during the day.


Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

The End


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