Gold Market:
Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin stated that the Fed needs to further clarify the inflation path before considering rate cuts. When asked if the Fed could lower rates once and then maintain that level, Barkin said it would depend on subsequent economic data. Currently, market expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed are uncertain, which is not conducive to a rise in gold prices in the short term.
Last Friday (June 21), the preliminary value of the U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 51.7, better than the expected 51 and previous value of 51.3. If global economic data improves, central banks' easing policies could slow down, which is also not favorable for gold prices in the short term.
Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, last week's market rallied and then fell back, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle, indicating a risk of further short-term gold price declines. On the daily chart, the market broke below the 62-day moving average and remains weak in the short term. Intraday, focus on the resistance around the $2330 level and the support around the $2300 level.
Crude Oil Market:
Currently, the crude oil market is generally balanced. If the global economy strengthens further, it will increase oil demand, which will be beneficial for oil prices to fluctuate upwards.
However, when oil prices rise, the U.S. might choose to stop purchasing strategic petroleum reserves. Additionally, close to the U.S. elections, in order to curb inflation, the U.S. still faces the risk of selling oil. Combined with the relatively stable supply from oil-producing countries, this means that oil prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating adjustment.
Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, last week's market continued its upward trend, closing with a bullish candle, indicating that short-term oil prices are relatively strong. On the daily chart, the market continues to run above the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, with short-term bullish advantages. Intraday, focus on the resistance around the $82 level and the support around the $79.73 level.
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