As 2024 draws to a close, the global market's outlook on energy and precious metals is becoming clearer. In the oil market, despite the complex geopolitical situations, policies from the Trump administration may pose further challenges in the coming year. In contrast, the gold market presents a different scenario, with 2024 being widely regarded as promising for gold prices as analysts predict the continuation of the gold bull market.
Oil Market: Gloomy Outlook Due to Trump Policies
For the oil market, analysts generally hold a pessimistic view, especially given the potential for the Trump administration to impose high tariffs on foreign imports. Trump plans to increase tariffs to reduce the budget deficit, or at least prevent it from expanding further. This policy could have far-reaching effects on the 2025 market. Many analysts note that Trump frequently mentioned during his campaign his desire to boost domestic oil drilling in the US, which could further suppress global oil prices.
Moreover, Trump’s policies may play a crucial role in Middle Eastern geopolitics and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Analysts believe that if tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict ease, it could release substantial oil supplies, alleviating the current supply tightness in the market. This would lead to increased oil inventory and reduce the upward pressure on oil prices.
Nonetheless, even if Trump does not fulfill all his promises completely, analysts remain pessimistic about oil price prospects. They expect that the oil market in 2025 will continue to be affected by tariff policies and the Middle East situation, potentially experiencing sustained downward pressure.
Gold Market: Continued Bullish Trend as Future Prospects Remain Optimistic
Contrary to the pessimistic outlook for the oil market, the gold market shows a robust bullish momentum, with 2024 seen as a standout year for gold performance. According to Citigroup, despite this year already being a golden year for gold, prices remain bullish, and investor demand for gold is expected to continue growing in the future.
Historically, the gold market often displays cyclic upswings, and the current bull market is considered one of the strongest in the past 50 years. Analysts argue that with increasing global economic uncertainty, particularly amid loose monetary policies by global central banks, inflation pressures, and ongoing geopolitical risks, gold will continue to attract investors as a safe-haven asset.
In the coming months, investor interest in gold is expected to remain strong, especially as global market uncertainties and financial turbulence intensify, thereby enhancing gold's role as a hedge. Additionally, low interest rates and central banks' demand for gold reserves provide further support to gold prices, with institutions like Citigroup remaining optimistic about its future upward potential.
Divergent Trends in Gold and Oil Markets
In conclusion, despite the grim expectations for the oil market, particularly under the influence of Trump’s policies, the gold market exhibits a continuous upward trend. In 2024, investors may favor gold and other safe-haven assets in their asset allocation to counter global economic uncertainties and potential financial market volatility.
