Daily Review - May 17

Vic He
Vic He

After discussing the situation of interest rate cuts in the United States, the focus should turn to whether European data supports a rate cut. Today, particular attention should be paid to the release of the Eurozone CPI data.

Market Review

On Thursday, Federal Reserve officials made various remarks. The Fed's "number three" William's latest statement indicated that there is currently no need to tighten policy, and he is pleased with the slowing inflation, though it is not enough to prompt a rate cut soon. Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that April saw progress in inflation, but it has not yet formed a trend. He suggested that a rate cut before the end of the year could be appropriate. Richmond Fed President Barkin and Cleveland Fed President Mester both believe that interest rates need to be kept high for a longer period to achieve the inflation target. Data-wise, US import prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in April, and initial jobless claims fell last week. During the day, the US Dollar Index rebounded, hitting an intraday high of 104.62 before retreating, eventually closing at 104.5.


Today's Focus

USD Index: Short-term prices bounced after reaching 104 and continued to rebound. Currently, attention is on the upper breakout structure combined with the 61.8% golden ratio retracement level. Intraday resistance in the 104.9-105.1 region may lead to a second decline, while the support level at 104 will be closely monitored.


EUR/USD: Today's key focus is the release of the Eurozone CPI data, with short-term support at the 1.08 level. After discussions on US rate cuts, the focus turns to whether European data supports a rate cut. If inflation continues to weaken, the EUR/USD pair may trend downward again in June.


GBP/USD: Short-term resistance remains at the 1.27 level. Today's focus is on the possibility of a second upward move. If the market fails to test this level, it may decline again, with support at the previous breakout structure at 1.26. For trading, short positions should have a stop-loss above 1.272, and if it breaks above, remain on the sidelines.


USD/JPY: The market continues to fluctuate within a short-term range, with support at the 152-153 area and resistance at the 157 area. Without an effective breakout, the range-bound trading approach remains unchanged. High sell and low buy strategies are advised, waiting for a breakout to follow the trend.


AUD/USD: After a price breakout and retest, the support area at 0.664-0.666 remains valid. Short-term trading can rely on this support for continued operations. The major resistance is at the 0.68 level, with intraday long positions having a stop-loss below 0.66.


USD/CAD: Bearish continuation remains for this market, with short-term resistance at 1.363-1.365. Without an effective breakout, the strategy of selling on rebounds remains unchanged. Intraday short positions should have a stop-loss above 1.369. Watch for support around the 1.355 level.


Crude Oil: The short-term downward trend in prices persists, with resistance at the previous multi-resistance conversion area around 81, and support at the short-term 77 area leading to a rebound. Watch for opportunities to short if the price reaches the resistance area again and a reversal pattern appears.


Gold: Prices have reached near the 2400 level again, with an upward trend on the hourly chart. Short-term focus is on the 2370 support level. If there is no effective break, there may be another opportunity to test 2400 on a smaller scale. If a direct break occurs, watch for a potential top formation.


S&P Index: After setting a new high, short-term support is at the 5280 level, which is a top-to-bottom conversion area. If the price stabilizes upon falling, there may be opportunities for long positions. Hourly support is at the 5200 level, and traders should watch for stabilization and continued upward movement opportunities.


Bitcoin: After hitting the 66000-67000 resistance area, the price has pulled back again. This area is a 61.8% retracement on the daily chart. If there is no effective breakout, continue shorting at this resistance level. Watch for support in the 59000-60000 area; if it holds, expect short-term fluctuations to continue.


Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

The End


Foreign Exchange Trading

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