On Thursday, February 15th, international oil prices closed virtually unchanged, despite having fallen more than 1% during the day. The U.S. announced that the plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on goods from certain countries will be postponed until at least April, which eased concerns over global trade tensions and improved the outlook for the economy and energy demand.
Brent crude futures settled at $75.02 per barrel, down 0.21%. U.S. crude futures closed at $71.29 per barrel, down 0.11%. Earlier, oil prices had dropped significantly due to market rumors that Russia and Ukraine might reach a peace agreement, raising investor concerns that if sanctions against Russia are lifted, global energy supplies will increase, thus limiting the rise in oil prices.
U.S. President Trump has ordered commerce and economic officials to study the issue of imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries that levy duties on American goods. However, market participants noted that U.S. government officials are unlikely to present relevant proposals before April 1st, giving trade partners more time for negotiation and easing concerns over global trade tensions.
Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said that with the delay in the implementation of the reciprocal tariff measures, the market has rallied. "This provides more time for negotiations, helping to avoid an escalation of trade conflicts in the short term."
Earlier this week, international oil prices had fallen by more than 2%, after Trump revealed that Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky each expressed a willingness for peace in phone calls, and have instructed U.S. officials to begin negotiations to help end the Ukraine war. This news heightened market concerns that restrictions on Russian oil exports might be eased, thereby exerting pressure on oil prices.
Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in its latest oil market report that if Russia finds ways to circumvent the latest U.S. sanctions, the country's oil exports may not be significantly affected. The IEA's data shows that Russia's crude production slightly increased last month. Moreover, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected, also exerting some pressure on oil prices.
In summary, the oil market is currently influenced by multiple factors. On one hand, a calming global trade situation and expectations for an improved Russia-Ukraine situation support market sentiment; on the other hand, increased U.S. crude inventories and the potential for continued Russian oil exports still exert downward pressure on oil prices. In the short term, oil prices may maintain a volatile trend, with the market needing to watch further developments in U.S. trade policy and the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine situation.
