Bitcoin came close to $85,000 last week before retreating to a level where it struggled to hold $80,000. With futures leverage still elevated and spot buying weakening, the reversal put traders betting on a rebound under renewed downside pressure. Trader Bastian Keller says trading psychology can matter more to real-world results than predicting the next price move.
Known as Bitbull, Keller discussed common trading mistakes during TOKEN2049 in Singapore. He founded Bitbull Trading and TradeMania, a trading community and software platform. Keller says TradeMania has a commercial partnership with Bitunix, which he describes as the platform's main exchange partner.
Keller says demo accounts cannot replicate real-money pressure
Keller questions the common advice for beginners to practise with simulated funds before trading with real money. In a demo account, traders know they cannot lose actual funds, he says, which can create confidence that does not carry over to live markets. Once both money and emotions are at risk, fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear of losses can shape decisions.
A losing position that is easy to hold calmly in a simulated account may prompt a very different reaction when real money is on the line, Keller says. He suggests beginners start with small amounts, such as $10 or $50, to get used to the pressures of live trading rather than taking on more risk than they can afford.
That does not mean demo trading has no value. It can help users learn a platform and test strategies without risking funds. The question, Keller's argument suggests, is whether that practice can prepare traders for the emotional impact of actual losses.
Revenge trading can turn a loss into a losing streak
Keller calls a pattern of trading mistakes he has experienced a “death spiral.” Before entering crypto in 2018, he traded forex, and says he was scammed—an experience that shaped how he viewed trading risks.
The cycle often begins with a loss. Rather than accept it, a trader re-enters the market immediately to try to win the money back. If the next trade also loses, the trader may increase the position or take on more risk. Keller says he has fallen into this pattern himself, which can lead to repeated losses until the account is depleted.
Leverage can make the behaviour more dangerous. It lets traders control larger positions with less margin, so even a modest move in the wrong direction can trigger liquidation and rapidly erode or wipe out an account. The risk is not only whether a market call is right, but also how large the position is and whether a trader can stop after a loss.
Futures open interest rises as spot demand weakens
A Glassnode market report showed Bitcoin futures open interest rising from $36.5 billion to $37.5 billion in one week. Traders holding bullish positions continued to pay elevated funding rates even as Bitcoin fell. The report also noted weaker spot buying and increased investor demand for options protection.
The indicators point to a gap between positioning and spot demand: futures traders are still taking on substantial directional risk while support from spot buyers has weakened. A sudden rebound in those conditions could encourage aggressive chasing; a fresh reversal could then prompt cascading liquidations. Leveraged positions are therefore a key indicator to watch when short-term volatility picks up.
Markets are also awaiting the Federal Reserve's October 28 rate decision and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Analysts cited in the article expect volatility may increase. For leveraged traders, rapid price moves around these events could make position management more difficult.
Keller also advises beginners not to chase every price move measured in minutes. Traders do not have to use scalping strategies, he says, and can instead adopt a slower pace that does not require constant monitoring. The suggestion addresses the pressure of frequent trading; it does not remove market risk.
TradeMania is developing a tool to analyse trading histories
Keller says TradeMania is developing a tool that analyses trading histories and provides AI feedback. Users can track their trades and talk with an AI agent to identify recurring behavioural patterns. The aim, he says, is to help traders spot mistakes before they become costly habits.
There is currently no independently verified evidence that the AI system improves trading returns. Trade analysis and behavioural feedback may help users review their decisions, but they cannot replace judgement about position size, leverage or the losses a trader can withstand.
Keller's final warning is not to trust everyone, including trading influencers on social media, automated signals and market forecasts. In a Bitcoin market marked by sharp reversals, changes in futures open interest, spot demand and leveraged positioning remain important facts for assessing volatility risk.