Polymarket launched 15-minute contracts on gold and silver on October 29, allowing users to take a position on whether each asset will rise or fall over a quarter-hour. The move extends the prediction market’s short-duration products beyond crypto to precious metals, with stock and forex contracts also planned. The launch schedule for those markets—and the level of demand from retail users—remains unclear.
Chainlink to provide settlement data for precious metals
Chainlink, a data partner to Polymarket, said on Thursday it would supply oracle data to determine the outcomes of the gold and silver contracts. The company said Polymarket is broadening its products from crypto to widely traded asset classes including stocks, commodities and foreign exchange.
Prediction markets rely on external data providers to verify contract outcomes. Chainlink has long provided oracle services for crypto smart contracts and is now extending that support to precious metals. For contracts lasting just 15 minutes, the data used for settlement—and how it is verified—directly affects how outcomes are determined.
Polymarket’s 15-minute crypto contracts reach $11 billion in volume
Trading volume in Polymarket’s 15-minute crypto contracts has reached $11 billion, pointing to strong activity in these short-duration products. The platform has also offered a five-minute version for Bitcoin. Users can trade similar contracts on XRP, Solana and Ethereum.
The contracts let users take a view on an asset’s direction over a brief period. Because each round ends quickly, users can enter another one soon after, making the pace of trading part of the debate around the products. Questions have been raised about whether short-duration prediction markets encourage repeated trading, but there is no indication yet of how much participation the new gold and silver contracts will attract.
Stock and forex launch dates remain unconfirmed
Polymarket and Chainlink have not given a specific launch date for 15-minute stock or forex contracts. A Polymarket spokesperson said only that the products would arrive “soon.” The platforms have not specified when those markets will open or which stocks and currency pairs they will cover.
Polymarket is not alone in offering gold and silver contracts: rival platform Kalshi also has products tied to the metals. Both platforms rely on external data to settle prediction market contracts. Whether the new offerings draw retail users remains to be seen. So far, the announced details cover contract duration, asset classes and the data provider; no trading-volume figures for the new contracts have been released.
Short settlement windows raise questions about trading and information use
The rapid settlement of 15-minute contracts has prompted questions about trading behavior and the use of information. When outcomes depend on price moves over a very short window, traders can take part in multiple rounds in quick succession. Critics have likened the process to repeated coin-flip decisions, with users choosing a position, waiting for the result and entering again.
Short-duration contracts may also draw scrutiny over trading based on insider information. Polymarket and Kalshi have previously said they have zero tolerance for illegal trading and have made public examples of users who violated their rules. Neither platform has disclosed additional controls specifically for the newly launched gold and silver contracts. Key questions include how settlement data will be verified, how rules will be enforced and whether the new markets can match the trading activity seen in crypto.