Gold:
Last week's inflation data indicated that inflation in the United States is receding, alleviating concerns triggered by strong non-farm payrolls. Combined with a less "hawkish" Federal Reserve meeting, market confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Fed is also recovering. Data shows that expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have once again approached 70%.
If inflation and wage data remain high, it could delay the normalization of monetary policy and diminish the appeal of gold. However, there is no need to worry excessively; deteriorating economic data might spark market optimism for a rate cut, limiting the downside for gold prices. In the near term, particular attention should be paid to statements from Federal Reserve officials.
Technical Analysis: Gold has remained volatile at the "bottom" following a significant drop from non-farm payroll data over the past two weeks, oscillating mainly between $2295 and $2341. In the short term, the direction is unclear, and trading within this range is advisable.
Crude Oil:
Earlier this month, major OPEC producers announced production cuts extending to 2025, and the OPEC monthly report upgraded this year's global crude oil demand forecast.
The president of a renowned consulting company stated that any president facing a reelection challenge, especially in a fragile economic environment, would be concerned about the risk of gasoline prices surging. With less than five months until the 2024 presidential election, the average gasoline price in the U.S. is $3.45 per gallon, down from the same period last year but up 50% since President Biden took office. A senior U.S. energy advisor remarked that gasoline prices are still too high for Americans, expressing hope for further price declines and noting that there are sufficient resources in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) if necessary.
Technical Analysis: Over the past two weeks, crude oil has shown strong upward momentum, rising from a low of $72.45 and reaching the previous month's high oscillation area, increasing the likelihood of a breakthrough. In the short term, focus on the support at $79.30.
[Important Disclaimer: The above content and opinions are provided by third-party partner Zhisheng for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors should operate based on this at their own risk.]
