The results of the 2026 US midterm elections have added uncertainty for AI-related stocks. Opposition to data center expansion could bring tougher reviews, higher approval hurdles or construction delays. Yet political shifts do not necessarily alter the stock market’s long-term direction—a point underscored by Warren Buffett’s investing principles and his successful bet on low-cost S&P 500 index funds.
Election results could slow data center projects
Data centers are central to the expansion of AI infrastructure, leaving companies that depend on continued investment in the sector exposed to potential regulatory and permitting delays. Some AI companies could face a more challenging operating environment over the coming months and year if projects encounter added scrutiny.
That does not mean investors need to avoid the broader market. Buffett, who led Berkshire Hathaway for decades, has invested through elections, recessions, regulatory shifts, financial crises, wars and market declines. His approach has emphasized business value and long holding periods rather than allowing short-term political or economic developments to dictate decisions.
Buffett said elections need not define market returns
After the 2016 US presidential election, Buffett said he expected the stock market could be higher over the following 10, 20 and 30 years whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump won. The result was not the one he supported, but he did not respond with a bearish forecast.
Since Election Day on November 8, 2016, the three major US stock indexes have performed well overall, despite economic shocks, the global pandemic and geopolitical tensions. That history does not guarantee future returns, but it illustrates that one election result may not determine the market’s performance over decades. Elections can drive volatility and uneven results across sectors; longer-term market direction depends on a wider range of factors.
A low-cost index fund beat hedge funds over a decade
In December 2007, Buffett wagered with a hedge fund manager that a low-cost S&P 500 index fund would outperform a group of hedge fund portfolios from January 2008 through December 2017. The index fund won the decade-long contest. The outcome highlighted how difficult it can be to outperform the market consistently and why long-term investors often look to low-fee funds tracking broad indexes.
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) tracks the S&P 500. Its returns over the past five years have broadly matched the index. The fund’s expense ratio is 0.03%, or about $3 a year for every $10,000 invested. On November 6, 2026, VOO was quoted at $675.99, up $2.02, or 0.30%, on the day.
A low-cost index ETF can be one way to diversify a portfolio, but it does not make individual stocks irrelevant or eliminate market risk. Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings may offer investors a research reference point. Whether they choose individual stocks or index funds, investors remain exposed to the effects of election results, changes in government and broader economic pressures; past performance does not assure future returns.