Federal Reserve Issue: Powell's Position Remains Unclear
U.S. President-elect Trump stated in an interview that he currently has no plans to ask Federal Reserve Chair Powell to resign. He mentioned, "If I tell him, he might resign, but if I ask him to resign, he might not." Powell's term will continue until 2026. He previously stated that he would not resign prematurely due to political pressure and reiterated the Fed's independence.
It is worth mentioning that Trump and Powell had multiple conflicts during his first term. Trump accused Powell of maintaining interest rates at too high a level, even threatening to dismiss him. In the future, the Fed's policy independence may be under market scrutiny again, especially against the backdrop of rising inflation, where monetary policy might conflict with the government's economic objectives.
Former IMF Chief Economist Blanchard also warned that the risk of policy conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed is very high, especially when the Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. This will directly affect Trump's proposed tax cuts and economic growth plans.
Trade Stance: Tariffs Re-Emerge as a Core Issue
Trump reiterated his trade policy stance, threatening to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and other countries to correct the U.S. trade deficit. He bluntly stated, "Why should we subsidize the economies of these countries?" and indicated that if necessary, the U.S. would take tougher tariff measures.
However, when asked about tariffs possibly leading to consumer price increases, Trump's answer appeared vague. He stated, "I can't guarantee anything about anything. I can't even guarantee tomorrow." This has heightened market concerns about the potential cost increases brought by tariff policies.
Tough Immigration Policy: Advancing Deportation and Reform
In the interview, Trump reiterated that he will deport illegal immigrants on a large scale while seeking to abolish "birthright citizenship." He stated that this policy is "very ridiculous" and plans to implement reforms through executive orders.
Regarding mixed-status immigrant families, Trump stated he would not separate families, but the only solution is to deport these families together. He also insisted that regardless of the logistical difficulties and costs of implementing this policy, it would not hinder him from advancing his plans.
Foreign and Domestic Policy: Adjusting Aid and Prioritizing Home Affairs
Trump mentioned he will reduce military aid to Ukraine and stated that America's role in NATO needs to be reassessed unless other member countries bear more costs. Additionally, he promised to pardon those convicted in the Capitol Hill riot and plans to extend the tax cut policies from his first term. He also stated he will not impose new restrictions on abortion drugs.
Trump's statements after his election victory not only reveal the core priorities of his administration but also foreshadow possible future policy conflicts. From the independence of the Federal Reserve to tariff measures, from immigration deportation to foreign strategy, his policy agenda will have profound impacts on both the domestic and international economic and political landscape.
