Non-farm Employment Rebounds but Unemployment Rate Increases
According to the latest data, the United States saw an increase of 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, significantly higher than the 36,000 jobs added in October, indicating a recovery in the job market following disruptions from strikes and hurricanes. However, the unemployment rate in November slightly rose to 4.2%, nearing the year's high of 4.253% seen in July. The labor force participation rate slightly decreased to 62.5%, down from 62.6% in the previous month. In terms of wages, the growth rate of average hourly earnings slowed to 0.37% on a month-over-month basis, a decline from the previous rate of 0.42%.
Performance of Major Industries
In detailed data, the education and healthcare services, leisure and hospitality sectors, and government departments were the main contributors to the growth in non-farm employment. Additionally, sectors such as manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services saw a turnaround from negative to positive job gains, thanks to the end of strikes at companies like Boeing and reduced hurricane impacts.
However, due to the later date of this year's "Black Friday," the retail industry's demand for labor was postponed, not fully reflected in November's data. As a result, the number of new jobs in the retail sector continued to decline.
Market Impact and Policy Outlook
In summary, the improvement in November's employment data is primarily related to the weakening of short-term disruptive factors. Nonetheless, the marginal rise in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth might indicate a decrease in labor market dynamism on both the supply and demand sides. Simultaneously, the continued increase in long-term unemployed individuals, those jobless for 15 weeks or more, suggests unresolved structural issues in the job market.
Recent signals from the Federal Reserve indicate that monetary policy decisions will be "highly data-dependent." The unemployment rate nearing the annual high in November could provide the Fed with room for a rate cut in December to stimulate economic activity.
