- U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy, Steven Witkoff, and Jared Kushner have recently convened top nuclear experts in secret to intensively prepare for a potential 60-day memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran.
- Iran's Supreme Leader's military advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, publicly stated that unfreezing $24 billion of frozen assets is a core trust test for the U.S.-Iran agreement, demanding the immediate release of the first $12 billion upon the memorandum's announcement.
- Boosted by signals of easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the cryptocurrency market rebounded after a significant drop, with Bitcoin (BTC) returning to $60,878, and the decline of most major tokens like Ethereum (ETH) significantly narrowing.
Envoy's Secret Meeting with Nuclear Experts: 60-Day Memorandum Framework Emerges
Informed officials revealed that a senior envoy from the Trump administration recently held a closed-door meeting with a team of about 100 top domestic nuclear energy experts at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. According to insiders, representatives from both the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary consensus on a 60-day memorandum of understanding over the past week. The core terms of this memorandum include extending the ceasefire arrangements in the Middle East, fully restoring free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Iran to resume partial crude oil exports within a limited scope, and setting restrictions on Iran's existing enriched uranium stockpile and future enrichment activities. However, Trump subsequently proposed two amendments to the agreement, and Iran also suggested new adjustments, with the marginal pricing negotiations between the two sides ongoing.
$24 Billion Asset Freeze Becomes Key: Both Sides Stuck in a Stalemate
Amid diplomatic probing, the ownership and distribution of overseas assets have become the current focus of the game. Rezaei publicly stated that whether the U.S. and Iran can ultimately reach an agreement depends entirely on whether the U.S. is willing to take trust-building measures, namely unfreezing approximately $24 billion of Iran's overseas restricted assets. Iran's specific demands indicate that after the memorandum of understanding is officially released, the U.S. must immediately unfreeze $12 billion of the funds, with the remaining $12 billion to be released in batches over the following 60 days. Washington is generally concerned that releasing all funds too early in the negotiation process could significantly weaken the U.S.'s core leverage over Iran in subsequent formal negotiations, leading to a stalemate.
Diplomatic Multilayered Interactions: Sports Visas and Military Deterrence Coexist
Beyond the core nuclear issue, U.S.-Iran interactions in other multilateral fields present a complex mix of hot and cold dynamics. On the sports diplomacy front, White House officials confirmed that the Iranian national soccer team participating in the 2026 U.S.-Canada-Mexico World Cup has been granted U.S. visas, with only 10 days left before their first group match in Los Angeles. However, the Iranian Football Association later issued a statement accusing the U.S. of politically targeting the denial of visas to accompanying administrative and management personnel, formally raising the issue with FIFA. On the military deterrence front, Rezaei warned that if the U.S. resumes military action, Iran will expand its counterattack range to the Red Sea and even the Mediterranean; Trump, in a campaign event, strongly declared that the U.S. has the capability to swiftly end any potential conflict.
Risk Premiums Decline: Cryptocurrency Assets Rebound
Encouraged by marginal easing of U.S.-Iran tensions and partial release of geopolitical risk premiums, the global digital asset market experienced a significant recovery over the weekend. After facing intraday liquidity pressure and a sharp decline, the cryptocurrency market began a strong rebound on Saturday night. High-frequency trading data shows that Bitcoin once plunged over 6% intraday, but as macro uncertainties eased, bullish funds quickly entered the market to buy the dip, with prices rebounding to $60,878 at the time of writing. Ethereum's intraday maximum decline exceeded 12%, but subsequent buying narrowed its decline to within 3%. Other major tokens like Stellar (XLM) rose over 7% against the trend, and if geopolitical conditions continue to improve, asset valuation pricing may face an overall reassessment.
