Silver remains under pressure after setting a record above $120 an ounce early this year. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone sees the metal potentially retreating toward $50 for support, with a possible trading range of $50 to $84 over the next several years. Spot silver was at $59.11 an ounce, down nearly 2% on the day.
McGlone identifies $50 as key support
In a recent report, McGlone said silver’s technical outlook remains weak. He has been cautious on the metal, arguing that its sharp rally above $120 early this year could prove a high that takes years to surpass. In his view, prices may need to consolidate at lower levels before demand stabilises.
McGlone compared current prices and volatility with the 1979–80 silver market. After a steep rally, silver then reached about $50 an ounce and did not break above that level again until last year. He said declines following extreme rallies can last for an extended period, making roughly $50 the first support level to watch.
Silver volatility is 5.1 times the S&P 500’s
McGlone’s research puts silver’s 260-day volatility at 5.1 times that of the S&P 500, its highest relative level since 1980. Silver suffered a historic price collapse that year. The widening gap with equity-market volatility underscores the scale of recent moves in precious metals.
He also cautioned that silver could fall further. Its average mean-reversion price over the past decade is about $31 an ounce. After major rallies in 1980 and 2011, silver did not form a bottom until it fell to $3.60 in 1993 and $11.60 in 2020, respectively. Those episodes do not mean the current cycle will follow the same path, but they illustrate how long a post-peak correction can take.
At the end of 2025, silver was about 2.7 times its 10-year average, the highest level since 1979, McGlone said. He believes the market would need to regain and hold above $84 an ounce for sentiment to improve. Until then, investors are likely to keep a close eye on pullbacks and volatility.
McGlone is cautious on gold as well
McGlone is also cautious on gold and expects it could eventually break below support at $4,000 an ounce. He cited the US five-year Treasury yield’s rise to a 20-year high as one source of pressure on gold toward year-end. A rebound in oil prices in 2026 also contributed to the increase in yields, he said.
For silver, the key reference points in McGlone’s assessment are whether support near $50 can withstand selling pressure and whether prices can regain $84. Both levels will help frame market moves and shifts in sentiment.