January 2 - The deadlock in the election of the U.S. Speaker of the House continues to escalate, potentially having profound effects on the transition of power. Analysts suggest that if the Republicans fail to elect a speaker by January 5, it will not only complicate the certification of the election but could, in the most extreme case, threaten President-elect Trump's inauguration on January 20.
Speaker Election as a Key Variable
Currently, the House is deadlocked. Despite Trump publicly supporting the re-election of current Speaker Mike Johnson and urging Republicans to resolve the issue swiftly, Johnson's far-right opponents continue to have reservations about his re-election. With Republicans holding a narrow 219-215 majority in the House, even two dissenting votes could cost Johnson the speaker's seat.
Republican Congressman Thomas Massie has already openly opposed Johnson, with potential opposition from others including the Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris and several conservative legislators. Analysts believe that if Johnson cannot be re-elected, the best solution for the House is to elect an interim or "caretaker" speaker to maintain basic operations, including swearing in new members, adopting election certification procedures, and organizing the January 6 electoral count.
Legal and Political Risks in Power Transition
Traditionally, Congress is required to certify the election results at its joint session on January 6. However, if the House remains deadlocked, not only will it struggle to establish certification procedures, but it could also impact the formal inauguration of the new president. In the most extreme scenario, if the speaker election is delayed past January 20, according to the Constitution, the current president Biden's term ends at noon. If a successor is未能认证, power will transfer to the first in the presidential line of succession, which is expected to be the 91-year-old Republican Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa.
Experts warn that such a situation would trigger an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Although the House is likely to reach a compromise before the deadline, the level of internal chaos increases the uncertainty of the proceedings.
Trump Faces More Political Challenges
The deadlock in the election for Speaker is another obstacle Trump faces before his inauguration. Previously, his nominee for Attorney General, Matt Gaetz, was forced to withdraw due to intra-party opposition, and some Senate Republicans have also questioned his other Cabinet nominations. Experts note that this reflects the severe challenges Trump faces in consolidating support within his party.
With the delay in the speaker election, the uncertainty in the U.S. transition of power has further increased. This is not only a procedural challenge but will also have profound implications for future political operations and party relations.
