The El Niño phenomenon is intensifying, leading to frequent unusual weather in the Asian region in August, causing significant losses to grain and oilseed crops. Reduced rainfall in September may further threaten the yield of crops in Asia.
Australia is the second largest wheat exporter globally, and India is the largest grain exporter in the world. Meteorologists and analysts report that due to drought conditions in Australia, the global wheat production forecast has been reduced. Meanwhile, lower monsoon rainfall in India has resulted in decreased production of crops, including rice.
At the same time, the world's most widely used palm oil may face supply cuts due to insufficient rainfall in Southeast Asia. China, the largest importer of corn and soybeans, also faces the risk of reduced grain production due to extreme weather conditions.
Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies, a climate data analysis platform, stated that this year's weather pattern in Asia is related to the El Niño phenomenon, with some regions experiencing full-scale El Niño weather. This situation could intensify further by the end of the year.
A senior official at the Indian Meteorological Department mentioned that the impact of El Niño exceeded expectations, with recent rainfall data showing that India is experiencing its driest August on record. This has had a devastating impact on summer crops requiring rainfall, such as rice, sugarcane, soybeans, and corn. India's ban on rice exports, accounting for 40% of the global export volume, has led to rice prices soaring to a 15-year high.
Due to insufficient rainfall in key producing areas in August, analysts have reduced Australia's wheat production forecast for the first time in four years. Ole Houe, the head of advisory services at IKON Commodities, mentioned that Australia's wheat production is 3 million tons lower than initially estimated. If the drought continues into September, wheat production could decline further. Over the past three years, Australia has experienced bumper wheat harvests, increasing supplies to major importing countries such as China, Indonesia, and Japan.
Hyde reported that rainfall in regions such as India and Australia is at 50% to 70% of the average level, while most parts of eastern Indonesia and Thailand have received almost no rain for over a month. Severe drought or lack of rainfall has significantly reduced the production of crops like rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and coffee in Southeast Asia.
Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc., noted that despite El Niño not directly affecting the United States, crops such as corn and soybeans in the US are still impacted by drought conditions.
