- China Merchants Securities International released the latest research report indicating that China's car exports performed strongly in the first five months of 2026, with new energy vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), becoming the core driver of overseas sales growth.
- According to official statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), China's cumulative car exports reached 3.22 million units in the first five months of this year, marking a significant increase of 70.7% compared to the same period last year.
- Market structure data shows that the export share of new energy passenger cars has significantly increased from 36.6% at the beginning of last year to 54% in May this year, and has remained above the 50% industry threshold for three consecutive months.
Switching Export Momentum and the Rise of Plug-in Hybrid Models
Against the backdrop of high overall export growth, the overseas structure of China's automotive industry is undergoing marginal changes. China Merchants Securities International's analysis points out that the acceptance of plug-in hybrid models in overseas markets has recently risen beyond expectations. This shift in product structure not only reflects overseas consumers' demand for alleviating range anxiety but also demonstrates the advantages of Chinese car companies in cost control and scale effects in the hybrid technology chain. With the dual drive of pure electric and plug-in hybrid models, the penetration of Chinese cars in overseas markets is rapidly expanding from point to surface.
Global Operational Capability as a Valuation Watershed
Regarding investment strategy, the research report emphasizes that under the current export theme, market funds should focus on leading companies with strong global operational capabilities. China Merchants Securities International explicitly mentions Geely Automobile (0175:HK), BYD (1211:HK), XPeng Motors (9868:HK), and Chery Automobile in the report. The firm believes that as the uncertainty of trade policies in multiple countries increases, mere "product export" can no longer support the long-term valuation of car companies. Only global car companies with overseas localized production, supply chain coordination, and compliance operation capabilities can maintain profit margin resilience in a complex international trade environment.
Localizing Supply Chains to Address Trade Barriers
Facing potential tariff adjustment risks in some overseas markets, leading Chinese car companies are accelerating the transition from mere vehicle exports to a deeper model of "localized assembly and supply chain rooting." For example, traditional and new energy giants like BYD and Geely are establishing full-process factories in Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America to hedge against the marginal cost increases caused by geopolitical factors. China Merchants Securities International points out that if such overseas capacity construction progresses smoothly, it will help relevant car companies bypass some trade barriers and reassess their long-term profit contributions in overseas markets.
