- The Taiwan stock market opened higher on Thursday but closed with only a slight gain. The initial surge of over 1.5%, driven by Micron's strong financial forecast, narrowed significantly as selling pressure emerged, indicating signs of market pressure at high levels.
- Micron's (MU:US) impressive financial forecast after hours once stimulated a significant rebound of over 6% in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), but the Taiwan Weighted Index (TWSE:TAIEX) ended with only a 0.46% gain, closing at 46,255.26 points.
- Foreign investors maintain a bearish stance on Taiwan stocks, with a record single-day net sell of 177.419 billion TWD in the spot market, and futures net short positions remaining high at 83,600 contracts, limiting the upward space for the market due to pressure from the capital side.
Chip Giants' Strong Forecasts Fail to Reverse Selling Pressure at High Levels in Taiwan Stocks
The semiconductor sector received fundamental benefits as memory giant Micron and Qualcomm released their latest performance guidance, exceeding market expectations. Micron's stock price surged over 15% after hours, significantly alleviating previous concerns about overvaluation in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. However, the strong external guidance failed to support a rise in Taiwan stocks. The Taiwan Weighted Index opened over 1.5% higher today but faced profit-taking and hedging selling pressure, with the index briefly approaching the support line. The initial transaction value shrank to 1.309394 trillion TWD, showing a typical pattern of raising prices to sell off.
Foreign Investors' Bearish Capital Pressure Becomes Core Market Constraint
Analysts generally point out that the core reason for Taiwan stocks' "strong start but weak finish" today is the continued bearish layout of foreign investors' capital. Foreign investors previously made a massive single-day net sell of 177.419 billion TWD in the spot market, setting a new historical record; simultaneously, they increased net short positions by 7,103 contracts in the futures market, pushing the total net short position level to a high of 83,600 contracts. The combination of massive withdrawals in the spot market and high short positions in futures indicates a very firm defensive attitude of overseas institutional funds towards the short-term valuation reassessment of Taiwan stocks.
Key Futures Short Position Replenishment Level Becomes Market Indicator
The flow of funds in the derivatives market will determine the short-term direction of the market. If foreign investors fail to achieve a significant replenishment of over 5,000 short positions in today's settlement or trading, the downside risk for Taiwan stocks will increase. Market participants need to closely monitor changes in the total futures position structure, which will be a decisive indicator of whether foreign investors are engaging in hedging at high levels or establishing a short-term bearish trend.
Monthly Line Battle Begins, Focus on TSMC's Investor Conference
Looking ahead, analysts estimate that tomorrow's trading range for Taiwan stocks will be between 45,300 and 46,700 points. If foreign investors gradually release short positions, the index is expected to consolidate above the monthly line (approximately 45,303 points). The next core fundamental catalyst for the market will be TSMC's (2330:TW) investor conference in mid-July, where the official outlook on advanced processes and AI demand will become a key variable guiding the third quarter's bullish or bearish dominance.
