Last week, the gold market came under pressure and declined, with COMEX gold prices falling by 2.53%, closing at $2673.90 per ounce. Similarly, the main contract price for Shanghai gold in the domestic market dropped by 1.45%, reporting 618.80 yuan per gram. The market's anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has been intensifying, yet the rebound momentum is evidently lacking, leading to weak performance in gold prices.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, there is a 34.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates in December, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 66.0%. Looking forward to January next year, expectations for a rate cut become more complex, with the probability of maintaining rates dropping to 25.2%, and the probabilities of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point cut standing at 57.8% and 16.9% respectively. This dynamic indicates high market confidence in rate cuts but also highlights the uncertainties brought about by policy adjustments.
Analysts point out that the potential rate cut benefits for December have already been partly absorbed by the market, resulting in a recent lack of rebound. As gold prices continue to be pressured, investors need to be vigilant about the possibility of further short-term declines in gold prices. Additionally, the uncertainty in global macroeconomic data, especially regarding the U.S. employment market and inflation data, will be key factors influencing future gold price fluctuations.
From the perspective of the futures market, although gold has a safe-haven attribute, the improved expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy have weakened the demand for gold. Meanwhile, the relatively strong U.S. dollar index also suppresses gold prices. Market participants advise investors to remain cautious under the current environment and look for more advantageous buying opportunities during the adjustment of gold prices.
The continued weakening of gold prices reflects the market's complex sentiment towards rate cuts and macroeconomic expectations. As the December policy meeting approaches, the gold futures market may encounter new fluctuations. Investors need to closely monitor future policy signals and economic data to address potential market risks.
