Gold: Last night, gold slightly rebounded, maintaining an upward trend, but with limited momentum. The pressure from the bulls has not been entirely relieved, and caution is still needed in the short term. The global economy may be entering a new stage, and gold remains one of the few assets worth acquiring.
According to the World Bank’s latest "Global Economic Prospects," the global real GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the 2.4% predicted in January, but lower than 6.3% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022, indicating a significant slowdown in economic growth.
According to the IMF's forecast, the global overall inflation rate is expected to drop to 5.8% in 2024 and around 4.4% in 2025, implying that the global economy will remain in a state of low growth and high inflation. In this scenario, the number of assets worth investing in will likely be quite limited, and gold, with its hedge against inflation and risk, will continue to hold great appeal for capital.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold closed with a bullish doji, indicating effective resistance from the bulls. The probability of completing the 4-hour cycle structure is high, but the upper resistance should not be underestimated. In the short term, attention can be paid to the resistance around the $2,323 level.
Crude Oil: Last night, oil prices maintained a volatile trend, but the form remained upward, and the upward momentum was not weak, indicating the possibility of hitting new highs in the short term. However, given the current economic situation, the global demand outlook for crude oil still faces significant challenges.
The World Bank warned that the global economy might be stuck in the slow lane. Over the next three years, global central bank interest rates will be three times the average level from 2000 to 2019, while also facing debt issues, shrinking trade, and other problems. The global economy will face significant challenges, with a high probability of slowing growth.
The economic outlook for major economies is also not optimistic. Japan's economic growth rate may only be 0.7% this year, the Eurozone is still struggling, with an expected growth rate of just 0.7%, and the U.S. economy is slightly better, but only at 2.5%, the same as in 2023. With a bleak economic outlook, the global demand for crude oil will also face significant challenges.
Technical Analysis: Crude oil showed two consecutive daily gains but is facing pressure from long-term moving averages. The probability of forming a continuation pattern at the hourly cycle high is high. In the short term, attention can be paid to the support around the $77.40 level.
