Wall Street analysts have largely held their long-term S&P 500 earnings forecasts steady despite recent losses in some major technology stocks. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, says the consensus for 2028 earnings per share remains near $500. His own forecast is $450, below the $493 consensus he cited, reflecting his view that analysts may be too optimistic.
2028 consensus remains above Yardeni’s forecast
In an interview ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, Yardeni said analysts’ weekly earnings estimates were roughly unchanged in the week ended October 26, with forecasts still pointing to strong profit growth in 2027 and 2028. A report he published on October 24 put consensus 2028 earnings per share at $493, compared with his estimate of $450 — about 9% lower.
The gap matters because earnings expectations help shape how investors value S&P 500 companies. If profit growth falls short of current forecasts, valuations could come under pressure. So far, however, analysts have not made substantial cuts to their longer-term estimates in response to declines in Alphabet and Intel shares.
Earnings estimates have outpaced the index
Yardeni’s data show that expected S&P 500 earnings per share for the next 12 months have risen 31% this year, while the index has gained 11.4%. As earnings estimates rose faster than share prices, the index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio fell 13.5%. The forward P/E compares a stock’s price with expected earnings and is a common measure of valuation.
Yardeni’s year-end S&P 500 target is 7,900, based on projected 2027 earnings per share of $425 and a valuation multiple of 18.6. Analysts’ consensus for 2027 earnings is $424.56, almost identical to his estimate. Yardeni cut his assumed multiple from 19.8 in September. Earlier, he had revised an 8,400-point target to a mid-2027 target.
Tech selloff has not prompted broad forecast cuts
The forecasts have held steady even as the Nasdaq 100 fell in late October, wiping out about $2 trillion in market value. Shares of companies including Alphabet and Intel weakened, but earnings consensus was roughly flat in the week ended October 26. The divergence between share prices and earnings estimates puts valuation multiples in focus as investors assess how markets are absorbing growth expectations.
Yardeni’s 7,900-point target depends on the S&P 500 sustaining an 18.6 multiple and 2027 earnings reaching about $425 per share. His $450 estimate for 2028 is more cautious than the market’s expectation of nearly $500. The main disagreement is not over 2027 earnings, where his forecast is close to consensus, but whether longer-term profit growth will justify analysts’ more optimistic 2028 outlook.