AUD/USD fell sharply after the Federal Reserve announced its interest-rate decision, but selling pressure eased after the pair reached a key technical support area. The exchange rate briefly slipped to around 0.7078, close to two important levels: the rising 100-day moving average at 0.70795 and the 50% retracement of the rally from the late-July low at about 0.70773.
When several technical indicators converge around the same price, the area tends to attract greater attention from traders. Some focus on moving averages, while others monitor retracement levels. When both point to the same price band, the zone can carry greater weight as a potential support or resistance reference.
In this move, the 0.70773–0.70795 area temporarily slowed the decline. Sellers pushed AUD/USD lower after the FOMC decision, but they did not sustain a break below the combined support zone. As downside momentum faded, some short positions were covered and buyers returned, helping the pair recover.
Treasury yields and commodities support the Australian dollar
The rebound was not driven by technical factors alone. U.S. Treasury yields moved lower, reducing some of the dollar’s interest-rate advantage, while commodities including gold and silver rose noticeably.
The Australian dollar is generally sensitive to changes in commodity prices. Australia is a major resource producer and exporter, so higher commodity prices can improve expectations for export revenues and support demand for the currency. The relationship is not consistently synchronized every day, but a combination of lower U.S. yields, a softer dollar and firmer commodity prices can create a more supportive backdrop for AUD/USD.
Those fundamental factors gave buyers a reason to lift the pair, while technical support near 0.7077–0.7080 provided a clearly defined area where the decline began to lose momentum.
The 100-day average remains a key trend reference
The 100-day moving average is widely watched by longer-term traders and investors as a measure of the broader trend. When a currency pair trades above a rising 100-day average, it generally suggests that buyers retain greater influence over the longer time frame. A sustained move below the average can gradually shift market sentiment toward sellers.
The key issue is not simply whether the price briefly moves through the average. Major events such as an FOMC rate decision can produce fast and temporary breaks of technical levels. More important is whether the pair can remain below the level and build further downside momentum.
In the previous session, sellers pushed AUD/USD toward the 100-day average but were unable to extend the decline. The lack of follow-through after the attempted break gave buyers an opportunity to regain control of the short-term price action.
A move back above 0.71017 improves the short-term structure
After reclaiming 0.70908, AUD/USD moved through 0.71017, strengthening the rebound. The successive breaks suggest that the move is more than a modest technical bounce from support: buyers have recovered several short-term technical levels, forcing short-term sellers to reassess their positions.
For now, 0.71017 is an important reference point for the near-term direction. As long as the pair holds above that level, the short-term bias remains tilted toward buyers and the corrective rebound can continue to develop. A return below 0.71017 would signal that the rebound is losing momentum.
Below that level, 0.70908 becomes the next downside reference. If both levels are lost in succession, attention could shift back to the main support zone between 0.70773 and 0.70795.
The 0.71168–0.71270 zone is the next test
Although buyers have regained some short-term control, the rebound has not yet been confirmed. The next major resistance area is around 0.71168–0.71270. It includes the 38.2% retracement level at 0.71168, a previous swing area extending toward 0.71270, and the declining 100-hour moving average near 0.71271.
The 100-hour average is still moving lower after the recent decline. That makes it both a short-term trend reference and a natural objective for the rebound. A falling moving average often draws selling interest on its first test. Traders who missed the earlier decline may look to re-establish short positions during the recovery, while those who bought at lower levels may take partial profits as the pair approaches resistance.
This does not rule out a break above the 100-hour average. It means buyers need to show that they can not only move through the level but also hold above it. Only then would technical control be more clearly shifting in their direction.
A sustained break is needed to strengthen the rebound
If AUD/USD can sustain a break above the 0.71168–0.71270 resistance zone, the short-term technical structure would improve further. The pair would then be trading above the 38.2% retracement, the previous swing area and the declining 100-hour moving average, giving buyers stronger technical control and potentially extending the recovery.
Until that break occurs, the move remains a constructive but unconfirmed rebound. Buyers have defended medium-term support near the 100-day average and reclaimed several short-term levels. The next question is whether the pair can push through the concentrated resistance between 0.71168 and 0.71270.
A failure to clear the resistance zone followed by a break back below 0.71017 would weaken the rebound. A move below 0.70908 would add downside pressure and bring the 0.70773–0.70795 support area back into focus. As long as the pair remains above that zone, the prior upward structure remains intact. A sustained break below both the 100-day average and the 50% retracement level would give sellers greater control again.
Key levels remain in focus after the FOMC move
The latest price action shows why technical levels can help identify shifts in buying and selling pressure when major events increase volatility. The FOMC decision triggered the decline, but the 100-day average and the 50% retracement together marked an area where selling pressure began to ease. That provided a clearer reference for assessing whether buyers might return than relying on direction alone.
Moving averages and retracement levels can help traders frame the trend, assess risk and identify prices that would confirm or invalidate an existing view. In this case, sellers tried to push AUD/USD below medium-term support and extend the move, but the break did not hold. Buyers then drove the pair back above short-term resistance. The market’s immediate focus is on whether 0.71017 can hold and whether the 0.71168–0.71270 resistance zone can be broken decisively.