Bitcoin's current halving cycle is about 62% complete, reaching the 900th day since the April 2024 event. Similar points in previous cycles coincided with, or came close to, bear-market bottoms. This cycle has yet to produce a clear confirmation signal. Bitcoin is trading near $83,100, around 34% below its October 2025 high but roughly 44% above the low of about $57,800 recorded in July 2026.
Next halving expected in April 2028
The Bitcoin.org countdown shows the network at block 970,344. The fifth halving is scheduled for block 1,050,000, leaving 79,656 blocks to go.
With blocks produced at an average interval of 10 minutes, the next halving is expected around April 2028. The block reward will then fall from the current 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Measured by block count, the present halving cycle is approximately 62% complete.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin's historically four-year cycle may be lengthening. However, the timing of the previous halvings still shows a degree of continuity in the cycle's rhythm. The halving date alone does not determine price direction; liquidity, the macroeconomic environment and changes in investor positioning also shape how each cycle develops.
Previous cycles neared bottoms at the 62% mark
Analyst The Rational Root compared four halving cycles in a post on X and marked the market's position when each cycle reached 62% completion.
In the first cycle, the 62% point came roughly in early 2015, when Bitcoin formed its bear-market low in January. The comparable point in the third cycle fell near the end of 2022. After the FTX collapse, Bitcoin dropped to around $15,500 in November that year before establishing a cycle low that drew broad market attention.
The current market has also rebounded from its July low near $57,800. That rebound, however, does not by itself confirm that a bottom is in place. The historical sample is small, and each cycle has unfolded under different interest-rate conditions, with different market participants and trading-product structures. Using halving progress alone to identify a price reversal therefore has clear limits.
Day 900 draws attention from traders
Trader Jesse Olson compared post-halving price performance across four cycles, adjusting the earlier cycles to reflect Bitcoin's price at the time of the 2024 halving. His analysis indicates that the previous cycles' interim peaks all occurred before roughly day 550 after the halving, while cycle bottoms tended to appear closer to day 900.
The current market has now entered that time window, making day 900 a closely watched reference point. If the historical rhythm remains useful, the market could attempt to establish support around current price levels. That interpretation still requires confirmation from price structure, trading volume and the behavior of trend lines; timing alone is not sufficient.
Trend-line retest remains incomplete
The cycle comparisons also show that the 2018 cycle and the retest of key trend lines have not provided complete confirmation of a bottom in the current market. Bitcoin is well above its July low, but it remains about 34% below the October 2025 peak and has not returned to the earlier high-price area.
For now, the 62% cycle-completion figure is better viewed as a timing reference than as a standalone trading signal. Market participants are still watching whether Bitcoin can hold the range established after the rebound, whether the trend-line retest is completed and whether the current low will be tested again.