Gold: Overnight, gold first rose and then fell. Initially, it increased due to the decline in the US May CPI, but later it dropped influenced by the interest rate decision, erasing earlier gains. The overall pattern suggests a possible end to this movement.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive time, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50%. However, significant changes have occurred in the dot plot, with 11 officials expecting at most one rate cut this year, and 8 anticipating two rate cuts.
The dot plot from March showed that 10 Fed officials believed there would be at least three rate cuts this year, but the June dot plot indicates a shift, with support for at most two rate cuts this year. This suggests that while rate cuts are likely this year, they may be limited, possibly only around 25 basis points.
Technical analysis: The daily chart for gold shows a medium bullish candle, but it faces resistance from a previous consolidation range. On the 1-hour chart, the structure is complete, indicating a high probability of forming a short-term descending ABC pattern. Intraday support can be observed around the $2,300 level.
Oil: Overnight, oil prices continued to hit recent highs, but the upward momentum seems to be weakening, hinting at market divergence. Caution is advised for short-term bullish positions. The unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories also adds concerns for bullish traders.
US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.73 million barrels for the week ending June 7, while the market expected a decrease of 1.025 million barrels, significantly above the previous rise of 1.233 million barrels. The inventories have seen a two-week increase, and a notable rise during a theoretical peak consumption season, showing an upward trend in the inventory curve.
Citibank holds a pessimistic outlook on oil prices. Analysts suggest that despite OPEC+'s efforts to cut production, the issue of oversupply is inevitable. By 2025, the global oil market is expected to face a surplus, potentially dropping oil prices below $60 per barrel. The latest EIA report also expresses concerns about oversupply.
Technical analysis: The daily chart for oil shows a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The 4-hour chart features a bearish reversal pattern and divergence at the top, suggesting a high probability of a short-term pullback. Support is noted around the $76.80 level in the short term.
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