Market Overview
Focus News
China Market
1. Week-on-week doubling of new home transaction volumes in multiple cities
At the end of August, a series of policy measures were implemented by various ministries. The pace of policy implementation accelerated locally, significantly affecting buyer sentiment. On a weekly basis, from September 18 to 24, monitored new home transactions in key cities increased by 58.18% week-on-week, while transactions for existing homes increased by 7.5%. Looking at individual cities, Shanghai, Beijing, Dongguan, and Zhengzhou saw their new home transaction volumes double, while cities like Qingdao, Wuxi, and Suzhou experienced considerable gains, with week-on-week increases all above 70%; Dongguan and Zhengzhou led the gains in the secondary housing market, with increases exceeding 80%, and Shanghai's daily transactions in the secondary market reaching a new high since April.
2. Hong Kong SFC to announce suspect list of virtual asset trading platforms
In response to public concerns over unregulated virtual asset trading platforms, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is taking several measures to enhance information dissemination and investor education. Following the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing Ordinance (Chapter 615), which came into effect on June 1, 2023, a new licensing regime for central virtual asset trading platforms grants the SFC comprehensive licensing and regulatory authority over these platforms.
Overseas Markets
1. Moody’s warns of a possible US government shutdown
Moody's, the only one among the global three major rating agencies currently giving the United States an AAA highest credit rating, expressed its waning confidence as the potential government shutdown approaches. Without threatening a downgrade, Moody's expressed its concerns over the progress of negotiations on the short-term spending bill in unusually direct language, a bill aimed at preventing the government shutdown.
2. Long-term US Treasury ETFs nearing a halving in value
Following the Federal Reserve's cursing of "longer-term high interest rates", US Treasury bonds experienced a collective crash, with the largest long bond ETF facing the biggest retracement on record. According to Bloomberg data, the value of the $39 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has fallen 48% from its historical peak in 2020, currently at its lowest point since 2011. Concurrently, data from IHS Markit show an increase in short selling against this fund, with short positions reaching a month-high as a proportion of its shares in circulation.
3. Hedge funds bet against US stocks at a six-month high
The reality of "long-term rises" has frightened investors in US stocks and bonds, leading to substantial net sell-offs in the US stock market last week. According to Goldman Sachs data, hedge funds have been net short on US stocks for three consecutive weeks, and five out of the past six weeks. In terms of nominal value accumulated over a six-week period, the scale of short positions on the US stock market has been the largest in six months since mid-August.
4. Hedge fund short positions on the euro reach an 11-month high
Cooling inflation and concerns over a recession have led the market to bet on interest rate cuts starting July next year, intensifying the bearish sentiment toward the euro. According to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending September 19, the net short positions on the euro increased to 23,306 contracts, the highest level since October 11 of last year; long-term asset management companies have also reduced their long positions on the euro for six consecutive weeks.
5. “Three-decade decline” in Japanese real estate comes to an end
Land prices in Japan have risen for the second consecutive year, buoyed by low interest rates, factory construction, and a rebound in tourism, ending a 30-year decline in rural residential land prices. A recent report by the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism shows that out of 80 locations across Japan's three major metropolitan areas and major regional cities, 74 showed an increase in land prices, making up 93% of the total, while the remaining 6 locations saw no change, with not a single location experiencing a decrease.
Today's Focus
Today, investors need to focus on important economic data such as the US building permits, new home sales, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index. In addition, investors should also be aware of risk events like speeches by the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Lane, and ECB Governing Council Member Simkus, as well as votes on the US House of Representatives' temporary funding bill.
