On Tuesday (November 12), US crude oil experienced slight fluctuations during the Asian trading session and has currently returned to the support boundary of its trading range. Oil prices are under pressure as the dollar strengthens. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have somewhat eased, reducing uncertainty on the supply side, which is not conducive to an oil price rebound. Technically, daily moving averages are declining, and indicators are bearish. If the dollar continues to strengthen, oil prices may drop below the previous low of $66.70. This week's focus is on the EIA crude oil inventory data. If the inventory data is strong, it may support a price rebound and maintain the oil price within its current range.
Furthermore, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December remains unchanged at 65.1%. As for interest rate expectations, there is a 54.8% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by January next year. On the demand side, the world's largest oil-importing country, a major Asian nation, has experienced weak imports for six consecutive months, with October imports falling to 44.7 million tons, down from the same period last year. The sluggish imports from this country concern OPEC+, prompting them to delay the original December production increase plans in response to weak demand.
Meanwhile, during his campaign, Trump indicated the possibility of imposing high tariffs on goods from this major Asian nation. If this policy is implemented, it could further impact oil prices. High tariffs may harm U.S. refinery profits and potentially trigger trade frictions, affecting crude oil demand growth. Although Trump's policy details remain unclear, the market generally expects him to take a relatively pragmatic approach, implementing more moderate policies under the influence of institutional and advisory guidance to avoid excessive impacts on oil prices.
