On May 21, international gold prices surged, momentarily surpassing the $3,300 per ounce mark, marking gains for the third consecutive trading day. Analysts point out that the softening of the dollar and heightened risk aversion are the key drivers behind this round of gold price increases.
Geopolitical Tensions Intensify Risk Aversion
According to multiple media reports, U.S. intelligence indicates that Israel might be planning an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Although it is unclear whether a final decision has been made, this news has rapidly sparked market concerns about an escalation in the Middle East, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. In this context, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is being sought after.
In addition, the U.S. credit rating agency Moody's recently downgraded its outlook on the U.S. rating, further weighing on the dollar, giving gold more upward momentum. A weaker dollar typically enhances the appeal of gold priced in other currencies, injecting momentum into international buying.
Multiple Favorable Factors Support Gold Price Upsurge
Beyond geopolitical influences, the continuous increase in gold reserves by global central banks is also a crucial support for steady gold price increases. Data shows that China's gold imports in April totaled 127.5 tons, the highest in nearly 11 months, surging 73% month-on-month, demonstrating strong market demand.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, stated that gold has currently established a trading range between $3,150 and $3,350. If gold surpasses $3,350, it might herald a new wave of price increases; meanwhile, the $3,300 level will also serve as a mild support level in the short term.
Mixed Institutional Opinions Amidst Persisting Long Sentiment
Although the market holds varying opinions on whether gold prices can continue rising, Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, maintains a bullish stance on gold. It points out that despite a slight easing of global economic recession risks and trade friction, the probability of extreme scenarios of significant gold price increases has decreased. However, the current low speculative long positions provide a good opportunity for building new long positions.
In summary, driven by a weak dollar, escalating geopolitical risks, and strong investment demand, gold still has the potential for further short-term increases. Market participants are generally focused on the breakthrough of the $3,350 level to determine the subsequent market trend.
