On January 8, international gold prices fluctuated and rose, with COMEX gold closing at $2679.8 per ounce, up 0.28%; meanwhile, domestic SHFE gold's night session closed lower at 628.18 yuan per gram, a rise of 0.19%. The gold price fluctuation reflects the market's complex response to U.S. employment data and policy environment.
Signs of Cooling in Employment Data
In December, U.S. ADP employment increased by 122,000, marking the smallest gain since August 2024, while wage growth fell to its lowest since July 2021. Simultaneously, initial unemployment claims dropped to 201,000 last week, the lowest since February 2024. These figures suggest signs of cooling in the U.S. job market.
Following the release of the employment data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell from an earlier high of 4.7%, providing some support to gold prices, leading to a slight rebound.
Trump's Policy Sparks Tariff Concerns
However, news that U.S. President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to implement widespread tariffs has caused market volatility. The uncertainty of tariff policy led to a strengthening dollar, which limited gold's gains. Analysts note that Trump's policy moves have a profound impact on the market, potentially causing volatility pressure on commodity prices, including gold.
Market Outlook: Focus on Non-Farm Data
Looking ahead this week, the market will be closely watching the non-farm employment data to be released on Friday. If the non-farm data surprisingly declines or the unemployment rate rises, it might intensify market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Against this backdrop, the dollar may weaken, providing upward momentum for gold prices.
Analysts believe that the signs of fatigue in the U.S. job market, combined with potential policy risks, might temporarily drive the gold market, though the inverse pressure of the dollar's trajectory on gold prices must be heeded.
Overall, gold prices will continue to fluctuate under the dual influence of economic data and the policy environment. Investors should keep a close eye on this week's non-farm data and the developments in Trump's policy on the market.
