US President Donald Trump stated that until the ceasefire arrangement reached between Washington and Tehran is "fully implemented," US ships, aircraft, and military personnel deployed around Iran will remain in place, along with additional ammunition, weapons, and logistical supplies. In an April 8 post on Truth Social, he warned that if the agreement cannot be executed, fighting will resume in a "bigger, more advanced, and stronger" manner. According to Reuters, Trump's statement suggests that while the US has announced a temporary ceasefire, it has not hinted at any rapid withdrawal or de-escalation of military deployments.
Trump's latest warning comes as the fragile US-Iran ceasefire enters its first complete trading day. Previously, on April 8, the US announced a two-week ceasefire arrangement with Iran and stated that both sides would work on a longer-term agreement based on this. On the same day, Trump also mentioned that the US would continue to engage with Iran to discuss broader arrangements, including sanctions and economic issues. However, the wording of his latest post indicates that the White House still regards military deterrence as a core mechanism to ensure Iran's compliance.
Rifts in the Agreement
Although Trump tries to describe the ceasefire as a transitional step towards a "real agreement," the US and Iran do not agree on the content of the agreement. According to Reuters, Trump claimed Iran agreed not to seek nuclear weapons and to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and safe. However, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the ceasefire terms did not prohibit uranium enrichment. This divergence shows that the fundamental positions on nuclear issues and strait passage arrangements have not yet been bridged, and the current ceasefire seems more like a temporary pause under battlefield pressure rather than a real political resolution.
The ceasefire agreement itself quickly faced spillover risk tests. Reuters reported that shortly after the ceasefire was announced, Israel launched massive airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and Iran criticized pushing for permanent peace when the regional situation is not yet stable as "unreasonable." This further strains the already trust-lacking ceasefire framework and increases the real possibility of what Trump calls "resuming fire if obligations are not met."
Markets and Shipping
For global markets, the importance of whether the agreement takes effect goes beyond military aspects, as the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of the world’s oil, oil products, and liquefied natural gas transport. According to Reuters, although some ships have passed through the Strait under Iranian coordination since the ceasefire was reached, major shipping companies are still waiting for clearer safety and implementation details. Companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are cautious, with Hapag-Lloyd predicting that it could take up to two months for shipping order to return to normal. Currently, there are about 187 tankers in the Gulf, holding a total of 172 million barrels of crude and refined oils, stranded.
This "nominal ceasefire, substantial watching" state makes it difficult for risk premiums in the energy market to dissipate quickly. Reuters data shows that after falling sharply due to ceasefire news in the previous trading day, international oil prices rebounded on April 9, with Brent crude rising about 4% to $98.44, and WTI climbing to $97.88, reflecting investors' significant doubts about the sustainability of the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz's actual passage capacity, and the prospects of subsequent negotiations. Global stock markets were also pressured due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, indicating that the market has begun to factor in more long-term geopolitical uncertainties again.
Subsequent Highlights
From the current situation, Trump's statement is both public pressure on Iran and a clear signal to the market: Washington does not view the two-week ceasefire as the end of conflict, but as a trial period to test whether Tehran is willing to accept more substantive conditions. If Iran insists on its existing stance on uranium enrichment and Strait control, and the US continues to ensure agreement implementation through military presence, then diplomatic engagements in the coming days, the progress of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether regional proxy conflicts continue to spill over will be key variables in determining whether the ceasefire can avoid collapsing again.
