- Dragged down by the weak performance of the real estate sector, equity markets in mainland China and Hong Kong collectively closed lower on Tuesday. The sharp decline in the core real estate sub-index intensified market risk aversion, with investors generally turning to a wait-and-see approach.
- International institutions have lowered macro growth expectations, and the performance of external semiconductor giants is affecting the valuation reassessment of the AI sector, impacting core markets in the Asia-Pacific region and leading to a marginal deterioration in regional risk appetite.
- Market liquidity is closely focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes and key domestic inflation and second-quarter GDP data to re-anchor future policy path combinations and asset pricing models.
Real Estate Sector Drags Down Equity Markets
At Tuesday's close, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (000001) fell by 1.3%, marking its lowest closing level since June 11, while the blue-chip CSI 300 Index (399300) also dropped by 1%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) simultaneously declined by 0.5%, with tech stocks and the real estate sector performing sluggishly. The specific sub-index tracking the real estate industry (000952) fell by 3.6%. This trend highlights a clear outflow of funds from high-leverage and cyclical sectors, with an evident decline in overall market risk appetite.
Macro Expectations Downgrade and Industry Chain Disruption
The latest World Bank forecast indicates that as the real estate industry continues to moderately address declining housing demand and consumers remain cautious, China's economic growth rate is expected to slow to 4.4% and 4.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This weakness has also affected other regional markets, with the South Korean stock market leading the decline. In particular, Samsung Electronics' (005930) recent forecast guidance has prompted global macro traders to reassess the overvaluation issues in AI-related trades, leading to profit-taking pressure on tech and growth sectors.
Focus on Key Economic Indicators and Policy Orientation
Market participants are closely watching the upcoming release of macroeconomic indicators. China will announce June inflation data this Thursday and second-quarter GDP data next Wednesday. Mizuho Securities China's senior strategist Zhou Chuna pointed out that although June's high-frequency indicators may appear weak, second-quarter economic growth may be stronger than monthly data suggests, benefiting from supply-side characteristics, robust service sector consumption, and capital expenditure in the tech field. Beijing's policy support is expected to remain prudent and targeted, with a greater emphasis on fiscal measures in the policy mix.
Cross-Asset Linkage and Offshore Center Layout
On the overseas macro level, global market focus is on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday, seeking key clues about the U.S. interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, Beijing and Hong Kong authorities have announced a series of measures aimed at boosting Hong Kong's foreign exchange, bond, and gold trading, with the goal of strengthening Hong Kong as a leading offshore RMB center amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Cross-asset allocation funds' views on Chinese assets
