- U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran might sign a peace agreement as early as this weekend to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This expectation has intensified global energy market fluctuations and macro asset risk.
- The Iranian Foreign Ministry is cautious about the U.S.'s optimistic statements, emphasizing that although most of the negotiation text has been finalized, Iran will not make any concessions on its core red lines. The final decision is still under review by its relevant decision-making bodies.
- Before announcing the potential diplomatic breakthrough, Trump had canceled a military strike plan against Iran and reiterated that any final agreement must ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons.
Expectations of Strait of Hormuz Reopening Guide Energy Market Reassessment
The peace agreement signals from the U.S. White House are directly related to the reopening of the crucial global oil passage, the Strait of Hormuz. If this diplomatic effort achieves a substantial breakthrough over the weekend, the global oil and commodity prices, which have risen due to war risk premiums, are expected to face a valuation adjustment. Reuters analysis points out that the prolonged conflict has continuously pressured the international energy supply chain, and if shipping order is restored, it will help alleviate global inflation pressures. However, given the current market liquidity and sensitivity to geopolitical variables, if the agreement is not signed as expected, oil prices may experience significant fluctuations again.
Iran's Core Decision-Making Review Introduces Agreement Uncertainty
Although U.S. President Trump told the media that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has approved the agreement, Iran's official statements show a clear policy difference. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that while most of the text is basically clear, the final decision on core issues remains with Tehran's highest decision-making body. Tehran emphasizes that it will not compromise on core interests involving national security and nuclear capabilities. This statement indicates that the plan for U.S. Vice President Vance to sign the agreement in Europe over the weekend still faces potential negotiation friction, and the certainty of the agreement's finalization remains to be seen.
Postponement of Military Strike Plan Reduces Immediate Conflict Risk
Before the potential peace agreement emerged, the Trump administration suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned military strike, significantly reducing the immediate military conflict risk in the Middle East. The White House attributed this move to the phased progress in negotiations and emphasized that diplomatic means are the preferred solution to the region's enduring disputes. However, the U.S. also set a clear bottom line that any form of peace agreement must ensure Iran is completely unable to develop nuclear weapons. If the U.S. and Iran cannot reach a consensus on verification mechanisms or sanctions relief timelines, the postponed military action option may be reactivated at any time.
Regional Geopolitical Multilateral Game Affects Long-term Market Pricing
Regarding the potential historic agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the attitudes of other key stakeholders in the Middle East are also crucial. Currently, Israel holds a highly reserved attitude towards this development, which may introduce uncertainty into the future implementation of the agreement. When assessing macro risks, financial markets need to consider not only the direct willingness of the U.S. and Iran to sign but also incorporate regional multilateral security dynamics into pricing models. If geopolitical uncertainty persists, the flow of safe-haven funds across asset classes may not fundamentally reverse in the short term, and investors need to remain highly cautious when assessing related asset risks.
