On Tuesday (January 13th), ahead of the US stock market opening, the sentiment toward risk assets leaned cautious: Futures of the three major US stock indices edged lower; in the foreign exchange market, the yen continued to weaken, nearing a critical threshold; meanwhile, narratives around safe haven and supply sided risks kept precious metals and oil strong, and the crypto market heated again with capital inflows.
Index Futures: Slight Retreat Pre-market, Market Awaiting More Clues
At the time of reporting, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones futures were all declining, hovering around a 0.1% drop. The "light pullback" before market opening seemed more like a repricing of valuations and event risks, rather than confirming a unilateral trend.
Forex Focus: Yen Falls to 18-Month Low, Pessimistic Forecasts Re-emerge
The USD/JPY hovered around 159, refreshing or approaching an 18-month low, with market discussions on potential Japanese elections and fiscal policy expectations impacting exchange rates.
In terms of institutional views, reports indicated JPMorgan offered a more pessimistic year-end target for USD/JPY on Wall Street, suggesting it could reach around 164 by the end of 2026, sparking discussions on whether a "weak yen will continue to reinforce itself."
Commodities: Gold and Silver Continue High, Oil Prices Rise on Iranian Risk Premium
Precious metals maintained their strength, with gold and silver continuing to fluctuate within record ranges: pre-market, gold was trading near a high of $4,600, while silver further strengthened. Driving factors remain a mix of lower interest rate expectations and safe haven demand.
In the oil market, both WTI and Brent crude saw significant rebounds. The core market trades on supply-side uncertainties - potential export and transport disruptions from the Iranian situation provide upward momentum for oil prices.
Crypto: Bitcoin Back Above $92,000, Risk Appetite Rebounds
Cryptocurrencies strengthened in unison, with Bitcoin rapidly surging before market open, with gains exceeding 2% at one point, regaining the $92,000 mark. The market interprets this as a phase of macro volatility-induced "high-beta asset" recovery.
