In the early hours of December 13th Beijing time, U.S. WTI crude oil futures prices saw a slight decline on Thursday. Markets continued to focus on changes in the international supply-demand balance of crude oil and the latest expectations from major institutions. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January delivery fell by $0.27, a decrease of 0.38%, closing at $70.02 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery also dropped by 11 cents, closing at $73.41 per barrel on the European Intercontinental Exchange.
IEA Predicts Adequate Supply but Adjusts Demand Expectations
The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its report on Thursday that the oil market in 2024 is expected to have adequate supply but slightly raised the demand forecast for next year. Although the relaxed supply forecast poses pressure on the market, the slight adjustment of demand indicates cautious optimism regarding the global economic recovery and energy consumption levels.
OPEC+ Further Lowers Demand Growth Forecast
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have cut their demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth consecutive month, marking the largest adjustment so far. This highlights OPEC+'s concerns about the strength of the global economic recovery and the sustainability of energy demand, adding more uncertainty to market prospects.
Analysts: Limited Short-Term Fluctuations, Market Awaits Fiscal Policy Signals
UBS analysts indicate that despite forecasts from OPEC+ and the IEA suggesting a potential oversupply in the crude oil market, the adjustment in demand expectations implies that the extent of supply-demand imbalance might be eased. He noted that crude oil traders are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating clearer signals from the fiscal policies of major global economies. He expects no significant fluctuations in crude oil prices in the short term.
Supply and Demand Dynamics Will Continue
Currently, the crude oil market maintains a delicate balance in the tug-of-war over supply and demand. On one hand, the IEA's ample supply forecast puts downward pressure on the market; on the other hand, OPEC+'s substantial downward adjustment in demand expectations and the uncertainty surrounding economic prospects keep market sentiment cautious.
Future oil price trends will be influenced by multiple factors, including global economic growth, fiscal policy directions, and demand dynamics of major energy-consuming countries. In the short term, the market may remain volatile, but medium to long-term trends will require continuous attention to changes in the supply-demand structure and the impact of external economic environments.
