This week, the domestic futures market continued to fluctuate under the influence of global economic data uncertainties and changes in policy expectations. Several commodities such as rebar, soybean meal, and glass are under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, leading to a divergent overall market trend. The following is the market performance and analysis of the major commodities.
Rebar: Weak Demand, Prices Under Downward Pressure
The rebar futures market was sluggish this week. With the northern heating season approaching, outdoor construction activity has reduced, further contracting demand. Although environmental production restrictions have affected steel production, leading to decreased supply, overall market pressure remains unabated. Analysts believe that in the short term, rebar prices may not receive significant support, and attention should be paid to policy-driven favorable news.
Soybean Meal: South American Bumper Harvest Increases Market Pressure
Influenced by expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, soybean meal futures declined within the week. The planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is smooth, with favorable weather conditions, enhancing international supply expectations. On November 15, the soybean meal January contract fell by nearly 3% during the day, with the domestic market similarly affected. Despite ample domestic soybean meal supply, if South American weather remains favorable, soybean meal prices may decline further.
Glass: Supply and Demand Imbalance, Difficult for Short-term Rebound
The glass market continues to decline under the dual pressure of sluggish demand and high inventory. As winter arrives in the north, demand in the construction market weakens, making it difficult for glass manufacturers to ship. On November 15, the main contract for glass was reported at 1,280 yuan/ton, with a drop of nearly 3%. Analysts predict that in the short term, glass prices may continue to slide, with support around 1,200 yuan.
Palm Oil: Weakened International Demand, Prices Under Pressure
Influenced by the sluggish international vegetable oil market, the palm oil futures market has shown recent weakness. Malaysia's palm oil exports declined significantly in early November, with reduced demand in the Northern Hemisphere during winter further suppressing the market. Institutional analysis suggests palm oil may continue to show weak fluctuations in the short term, with insufficient international demand limiting the rebound space for domestic prices.
Soda Ash: High Inventory, Prices Continue to Decline
The soda ash market is under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand. Despite ample company inventories, the impact of environmental production restrictions is limited, and market demand has not shown a significant recovery. On November 15, the main contract for soda ash slightly fell, reported at 1,511 yuan/ton. Analysts predict that given the current supply and demand situation, soda ash prices are unlikely to improve in the short term.
Brief Analysis of Other Commodities
Soy oil futures declined due to uncertainties in U.S. biofuel policy and surplus supply; fuel oil showed limited price fluctuations due to global economic slowdown; PVC and PTA faced insufficient cost support and increased supply pressure, limiting their short-term price rise potential. Methanol prices also showed weakness due to increased international market supply.
Amid fluctuations in the international vegetable oil market and weak domestic demand, major commodities in the domestic futures market were generally under pressure this week. Products like rebar, glass, and soda ash saw price declines due to weak demand, while soybean meal and palm oil were dragged down by increased global supply. It is expected that the prices of major commodities will remain volatile in the short term, with market focus still on changes in international supply, the recovery of domestic demand, and policy directions.
